The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon deficient despite late recovery

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the average area-weighted rainfall received by the country during the current monsoon season from June 1 to September 18 amounted to 700.5 millimetres (mm), 17.7 per cent below the long period average (LPA) value of 850.9 mm for this period.

This makes it a `deficient' monsoon, which corresponds to a shortfall (over LPA) in excess of 10 per cent for the country as a whole and 20 per cent for individual meteorological sub-divisions. It is unlikely that the position will change much in the remaining days of the month, which means that 2002 will end up being the first deficient monsoon since 1987.

In fact, there are clear signs of the monsoon activity weakening significantly in the last few days. The week ending September 18 recorded a 25.4 per cent deficiency in overall precipitation, with only the northern States (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal, Punjab, Haryana & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal) receiving excess rainfall. The rest of the country, including the entire western, central and southern belt, was dry.

The IMD has forecast that in the coming week, the monsoon will further withdraw from the remaining parts of north-west and some parts of central, even as rainfall activity is expected to increase in the Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.

A significant feature of this year's monsoon is the fact that, unlike the past, the rainfall activity has been concentrated in the second half (August-September) rather than the first half (June-July) of the season. Indeed, the first half was a disaster, with the total area-weighted rainfall received by the country, at 329.8 mm, being 29.9 per cent below the LPA for this period. July, which is normally the wettest month of the year accounting for around 300 mm or a quarter of the year's aggregate rainfall, recorded a 49 per cent shortfall in precipitation - the worst in the last 100 years. The aggregate rainfall for the subsequent period from August 1 to September 18 has been higher at 370.7 mm, though even this has been lower than the corresponding LPA value of 380.1 mm for this period. In other words, the `recovery' in the monsoon since August has not been sufficient enough to offset the `dry' first half. This is notwithstanding the fact that the number of sub-divisions recording deficient-to-scanty rainfall have come down from 26 (out of 36) till end-July to 16 as on September 18 and the percentage of deficient-to-scanty districts in the country has also reduced from 74 to 58.

As a result, the area sown under various crops during the current kharif season has been considerably lower compared to last year's levels, with the shortfall amounting to 16.1 per cent for rice, 24.3 per cent for coarse cereals, 14.1 per cent for pulses, 8.5 per cent for oilseeds and 15.6 per cent for cotton. Going by current trends, it appears that there will be an area shortfall (compared to normal levels) of about 60 lakh hectares for rice, 50 lakh hectares for kharif coarse cereals, 10 lakh hectares for kharif pulses, 25 lakh hectares for kharif oilseeds and 15 lakh hectares for cotton.

The Agriculture Ministry will be releasing its first `advance estimates' of production of various kharif crops at the National Conference on Agriculture for Rabi Campaign on Monday, where information would be compiled based on information supplied by different State Governments.

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