The Hindu Business Line : Gujarat wants more than <B><I>gaurav </B></I>

WHAT the Gujarat Chief Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, thinks is his party's trump card — Hindutva and Hindu gaurav — might just turn out to be the BJP's disadvantage if the voters decide to turn around and say, however flippantly, "Yeh dil maange more."

In the immediate aftermath of Godhra, if the Prime Minister, Mr A.B. Vajpayee, had not put his foot down and prevented Mr Modi from dissolving the Gujarat Assembly much earlier and seeking elections, this card might have worked. But between April-May to December, enough water has flowed down the Sabarmati. The grave economic consequences of one of the worst spates of communal violence the State has seen since Independence have made their mark. And the average voter wants more than the Hindu pride that Mr Modi is promising him.

"It seems that the Hindutva card is the only one the BJP is playing at the moment. And people seem to be getting disenchanted with a campaign that says: `Muslim nikalo, Gujarat bachao (Throw Muslims out, save Gujarat).' Now if this card works 100 per cent, then the BJP may even return with 150 seats. But at the moment, it appears that the Hindutva magic is working only in select urban areas such as Ahmedabad, Baroda, Anand and the like," points out a political analyst in Ahmedabad.

Discounting some opinion polls which have predicted either a two-thirds majority or a comfortable victory for the BJP, the Ahmedabad-based Mr Prakash Shah, former Editor of Jansatta, says, "I don't think there is going to be any blank cheque for Modi, as is being projected by so many people in the media and outside.

"It cannot be denied that there is some ascendancy for the Congress-I as the polls get closer, and there are several reasons for this." He feels that dissidence within the BJP will hurt the party a lot. The Keshubhai factor in the fortunes of the Gujarat BJP cannot be undermined, he says. "For one thing, he has said the chief minister can only be elected by the MLAs and not anybody else. So, at the moment it cannot be said who will be chief minister. Now this is clearly an attack on Mr Modi's leadership... He also indicated that Hindutva alone is not the BJP's ideology, when he pointed out that jati and krati (caste) will also play a role in the elections."

Mr Shah feels that this is a clear pointer to the fact that the Patel community in Saurashtra might still be unhappy with the BJP for unceremoniously bundling out Mr Keshubhai from the Chief Minister's chair a couple of years ago, and bringing in Mr Suresh Mehta, who was also removed to bring in Mr Modi.

He also feels that the BJP's election prospects might have actually been hurt by the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr L.K. Advani, launching the party's campaign in Gujarat by daring the Pakistan President, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, to come out and fight a fourth war with India. "A lot of ordinary people feel that this was an irresponsible statement."

Mr Girish Patel, human rights activist and Founder of the Gujarat Sangharsh Committee, told Business Line, "At the moment, it is very difficult to judge which way this election will go. But the huge Hindutva wave, which we were fearing till recently, doesn't seem to be in the offing. Central and North Gujarat are mostly communal and have been always considered the uncultured Gujarat regions, compared to the Saurashtra and Kutch region which is considered cultured and a very hospitable area."

But even though he was getting a sense that "things were not as bad as we had thought, and this election might throw up, apart from the communal factor, many socio-economic problems, the educated will still cast anti-Muslim votes as they are hugely influenced by the BJP's anti-terrorism plank. Though I feel bad to say this, within me, I also know that till Muslim terrorism doesn't come here in a big way, yeh Hindu community sudharney wali nahi hei (the Hindus won't reform). But this is the reality; like after the Bombay blasts of 1993, yahan key log thandey pad gaye (religious passion here cooled down)."

Mr Patel says he is getting reports of many people saying that "this Modi is too much; Vajpayee tak theek tha (Vajpayee's ideology is enough) but now this is getting too far. Unfortunately, the Congress has no propaganda machine or strategy."

"Today Gujarat has 30 to 35 per cent poverty, the backward areas are really backward, gross inequality and the growing gap between the rich and the poor is Gujarat's third problem. On the one hand, you have affluence and on the other abject poverty. Unemployment among the educated and the uneducated, the casualisation of labour due to globalisation, increasing number of contract workers leading to loss of security at the work place, atrocities against women because this is one area where Gujarat is really ahead of the rest of the country, rampant child labour and the major issue of corruption. Congress waley ek taraf se letey the, BJP waley dono taraf se letey hei (Congress used to charge only one way, but the BJP charges both ways) to get somebody arrested first, and then to get him released," says Mr Patel.

He adds that environmental problems are another major issue in Gujarat, and this correspondent can vouch for the extreme pollution in Ahmedabad city, which leaves your eyes burning and teary by the time you have driven from the airport to your hotel.

"We are only getting industries which are of the polluting variety and are capital-intensive but which are short on labour. Then, water is a big problem. They are fooling people in the name of Narmada, because Narmada is not going to solve Gujarat's water problem. In Kutch only 2 per cent is cultivable land, in Saurashtra only 11 per cent and in North Guajrat only 22 per cent will get Narmada water. The excessive use of water throughout Gujarat for agriculture and the non-ecological pattern of production of crops are destroying this State. Nobody thinks five or 10 years down the line. I am fighting for the minimum wages of the sugarcane workers in south Gujarat, so I know about this sugar cane industry. They are hardly getting Rs 10 to 12 daily wage a day. When we have such huge problems, we are fighting an election on communal lines," adds Mr Patel.

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Gujarat wants more than gaurav