The Hindu Business Line : Congress closing in on BJP in Gujarat

WITH media reports-cum-speculation on the bookies in Ahmedabad and Mumbai giving the Congress (I) bigger odds than the BJP for victory in the Gujarat elections, the satta bazaar seems to be more heated and sizzling than actual election campaigning here.

For a person from Chennai, used to mega posters and cut-outs that take urban and rural Tamil Nadu by storm during election time, Gujarat's commercial capital seems to hold much more pollution than election fever. It is four days D-day, and campaigning is rather lacklustre, going by the indifferent and poor turnout at election rallies.

But the missing fanfare and poor size of the crowds and hoardings are more than made up by the shrill pitch of the campaign, where the winner is definitely the BJP strongman,Mr Narendra Modi. He shares the honour for a high-voltage campaign of hatred against the Muslims with his friend and VHP General Secretary, Mr Praveen Togadia.

To quote a professor from IIM (Ahmedababd), "When you listen to Mr Togadia's speeches on how Godhra has to be avenged and the jehadi Muslims of Gujarat either destroyed or chased away to Pakistan, it seems that every pore of his body is spewing poison and hatred against the Muslim community."

With the odd opinion poll giving the Congress (I) equal, if not slightly more chance than the BJP, Mr Modi is indeed an anxious man.

He himself has dumped Rajkot for the BJP bastion of Maninagar. But the poor turnout at the rallies addressed by prominent BJP leaders, including the Deputy Prime Minister and ardent admirer of the Modi brand of politics, Mr L.K. Advani, is worrisome.

It is understandable that he has asked the two Muslim faces of the BJP, Mr Shahnawaz Hussain and Mr Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, to stay off the campaign scene as their very presence is bound to dilute his Hindutva campaign. But it is surprising that he even asked some BJP top leaders such as Mr Murli Manohar Joshi, Ms Sushma Swaraj and others, who wanted to come down to Gujarat for a second round of campaigning during the extended weekend to stay put in the Capital.

What has galled Mr Modi is that Congress (I) chief, Ms Sonia Gandhi, has been drawing substantial crowds at her rallies in Gujarat.

Already, the BJP detractors are making all kinds of jokes about Mr Vajpayee's election rallies being postponed to the evening, despite the anxiety of his security men, for two reasons: One, the thin attendance might not be glaring under the dark of the late evening/night, and two, working people can attend his meetings.

But what had earlier been dismissed as a foregone conclusion and an impending and huge BJP victory is now turning into some kind of an electoral battle, with the Congress (I) suddenly emerging as a worthy competitor.

The Vadodara-based Mr Nirlesh Kothari, a visiting faculty member at IRMA, Anand, told Business Line in an interview that a lacklustre election has suddenly become more interesting.

"The Congress (I) seems to be gaining ground and at the moment it seems to be quite close to the BJP. This has happened because Ms Gandhi and the GPCC chief, Mr Shankersinh Vaghela, have effectively addressed the BJP's campaign against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism by asking what is stopping the BJP from taking on Pakistan and addressing this problem."

But he feels in the last few days prior to the elections, the support for Congress might wear down a little. "The BJP is bringing in Mr Vajpayee on December 9 and the Congress would do well to bring in Ms Gandhi for one more round on the 10th."

Coming down on the BJP Government for taking the State economically backward, Mr Kothari said, "Educated people like me feel that we cannot live in a society which is so deeply divided along communal lines. If Hindus and Muslims have to live together, and there is no other option, we'll have to live together in friendship. I'm sorry to say the BJP has proved to be uncouth, corrupt and taken the State backward. They just don't seem to know what administration is all about."

He himself has not decided which party he is going to vote for on December 12. "But of one thing I am certain. My vote will be a negative vote; I have no other choice. The last time I voted against the Congress and for the BJP. Unfortunately in India, an election seems to leave the voters with little choice. It is like you having two shirts to choose from, and obviously you will choose the shirt that is less dirty."

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