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Harihar Swarup

CERTAIN trends stand out a few days before the Gujarat polls. The Hindutva wave on whose crest Mr Narendra Modi hoped to achieve a landslide appears to be losing momentum.

A recent pre-poll survey by Outlook-Cfore revealed that the Hindu card has not worked all that well for the BJP in Gujarat. Religious sentiments appear to be losing ground to factors such as anti-incumbency, governance and unemployment. The results of the Outlook survey were in sharp contrast to the one thrown up by an India Today poll, which predicts a two-thirds majority for the BJP. What is the reality on the ground? Godhra and its aftermath have unsettled the middle class, traders and the poor. The industry too has suffered badly and the entire economy of Gujarat has been affected. For the thousands of people who have lost their livelihood, daily bread is more important than Mr Modi's fanatic brand of Hinduism.

This is, perhaps, why Mr Modi's popularity among the Dalits, Adivasis and OBCs has waned — not only in areas where the riots took place, but also in other regions. The base has, however, not eroded altogether.

Another factor that is likely to spoil the BJP's chances is the merger of Mr Shankersinh Vaghela's All India Rashtriya Janata Party (AIRJP) with the Congress (I). This could help the Congress wrest back many of the seats it lost in 1998.

The Saurashtra and Kutch regions — which were not affected by the communal riots — appear to be the toughest battleground for the BJP. Ironically, in the last elections, the BJP bagged 52 of its 117 seats from Saurashtra.

Significantly, the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, addressed his first election meeting at Jamnagar in Saurashtra. The primary issues in these areas are drinking water, rehabilitation of earthquake victims and rising prices.

The other factor is the series of cooperative bank scams. Many people lost their lost hard-earned money. Also, the culprits have not yet been brought to book.

Mr Modi reportedly asked 12 BJP leaders, including such heavyweights as Mr Murli Manohar Joshi, Mr Pramod Mahajan and Ms Uma Bhartai, not to campaign. He also turned down the suggestion of drafting BJP's Muslim leaders including Mr Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi and Mr Shahnawaz Khan for the campaigning.

The no-holds-barred attack on the Congress gives the impression that the BJP has no other issue to highlight, and this will not go down well with the electorate.

Another factor that may influence the poll outcome is the Muslim vote.

Though the population of the minority community is not large in Gujarat, its vote may prove to be decisive in as many as 60 constituencies. Indications are that the Muslims, as well as members of other minority communities, will vote in large numbers. In the last elections the turnout of Muslim women voters was low, but this time it may be massive.

The Muslims are going to vote en bloc for the Congress. Unlike the Hindu electorate, Muslim votes have been totally polarised.

On poll eve, it is apparent that the BJP is in for a tough time. Voters in India have always acted with common sense. Let us see how they act in Gujarat.

(The author, a former Bureau Chief of PTI, is a Delhi-based columnist)

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