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B. J. Krishnan

THE US President, Mr George Bush, not long ago, declared at West Point that "the 20th Century ended with a single surviving model of human progress". The message is clear: The US was the embodiment of this model. It is this model in which the US, representing just 4 per cent of global population, is responsible for one-fourth of the world's greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission into the atmosphere.

The linkage between greenhouse gases and global warming is no more science fiction, as Mr Bush would like us to believe. The international community of scientists, in a recent report, warns that we have to face extreme climate events not only more frequently but more severely.They include erratic monsoons, floods and droughts, increase in the number of people exposed to the vector-born diseases, decrease in agriculture produce, melting of ice in Arctic and other regions and rise in sea-level.

One of the first victims of global warming, at the micro level, is the polar bear. The Hudson Bay area in the great Canadian North is the habitat of polar bears. The average temperature of this region rose from 0.3 to 0.4 degrees Celsius since 1950, resulting in shortening winter year by year. The giant white bears need ice to form to gain access to ringed and barbed seals.

"For every week a bear has not been ice hunting, it is 10 kg lighter, which can be dangerous, as polar bears need to fatten up for the five months in the summer and fall that they are forced to fast," says Mr Micheal Goodyear, Director of the Churchill Northern Studies Centre. According the Canadian Wildlife service, the bears, on an average, already weigh 80-85 kg less than they did in 1985.

But the New Delhi Declaration adopted recently at the end of the eighth meeting of the Conference of Parties (CoP-8) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) bring no cheer to the polar bears.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted at Rio at the Earth Conference in 1992, did not make any progress till the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated in 1997. Though the Kyoto Protocol had a weak target of 5 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission over 1990 level by 2000-2012, it has not yet come into force. The protocol becomes operational only when countries, accounting for 55 per cent of the emission, including the Annexure I developed countries, ratify. The countries have ratified the protocol so far only account for 37 per cent of global emissions. Major polluters such as the US, China, Russia and Canada are yet to ratify the agreement. After the 1998 Buenos Aires Plan of Action to operationalise the protocol, the US walked out of the climate negotiations. Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) and G-77 countries have focussed on the enforcement of the protocol despite US' exit. It was such in a situation that the Eighth Climate Conference of Parties (CoP-8) was held in New Delhi recently.

Though the CoP-8 was not expected to result in the ratification of Kyoto Protocol, it was significant for two reasons. It was the first meet on climate change after the World Summit on Sustainable Development at Johannesburg. And, more important, it was convened for the first time in a major developing country such as India.

India, which had played a major role at Rio as one of the frontline developing countries in formulating the climate convention, played a questionable role at the CoP-8. The Union Minister for Environment and Forests, Mr T. R. Balu, as Chairman of CoP-8, circulated a draft Delhi Declaration on climate change which made no reference to Kyoto Protocol whatsoever.

The draft was criticised almost by all countries including the EU and China. The small island nations that are slowly submerging by the rise in sea-level due to global warming were up in arms against it. And, rightly so. India was in unenviable isolation along with the US and Saudi Arabia. India's credibility as one of the leaders of the developing nations in the context of climate change was at stake.

The damage control was left to the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee who, in his inaugural speech at CoP-8, lashed out the industralised nations and reiterated India's stand on the Kyoto Protocol. CoP-8 had its share of other problems too.

Industrialised countries including Japan, Canada, Norway, Denmark and the UK focussed on future commitments of nations to reduce GHG emissions. On the other hand, developing countries wanted to limit the talks to the implementation of developed countries' existing commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Adequacy of commitments over GHG emission reduction was once before discussed at the fourth Conference of Parties in 1998.

The small island nations complained that though they did not produce any GHG they were the most affected by the vagaries of weather. The genuine grievances of these countries, including Tuvalu and Nive were not adequately addressed. On the positive side, the major polluting industralised countries, including Russia Canada, Japan and the EU, expressed their intention to bring the Kyoto Protocol into force next year. This was a significant achievement in the context of the American determination to derail the process of Kyoto Protocol.

There was considerable progress on the technical issue of Clear Development Mechanism (CDM). Under the CDM rules, industralised countries can earn carbon credits by investing in reforestation, afforestation and renewable energy projects in the developing countries.

The German Federal Minister for Environment, Mr Jurgen Tritten, said that the CDM would be fully operational and concrete proposals would start from next year. It is interesting to note that India recently endorsed six renewable energy projects to be set up with Dutch assistance under the CDM. This will enable the Netherlands to earn green credits which, in turn, will reduce its GHGs emission debt account.

The most notable and constructive aspect of the CoP-8 is the emergence of Germany as a "cleaner and greener" industralised country.

Mr Jurgen Tritten, who played an active role at the conference, debunked the American stand that Kyoto Protocol would affect the US economy and that its ripple effect would affect many other economies too. Mr Tritten took the bold stand that the economies would suffer more from the adverse effects of climate change and, therefore, it was necessary to operationalise the Kyoto Protocol for sustainable economic development."

The developed countries that were responsible for 80 per cent of atmospheric concentration of GHGs had to share a higher responsibility for protecting the environment," he said.

Mr Tritten observed: "We are prepared to reduce our GHGs until 2020 by 40 per cent below the 1990 levels, provided the EU decided to reduce its emissions by 30 per cent and other countries adopted similar ambitious targets. The success story of German climate change policy clearly shows that while these targets are ambitious, they are also reachable and a benefit for our economy. Out of our Kyoto target, which requires a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 21 per cent below 1990 levels, Germany has already achieved 19 per cent today" (The Hindu, November 1).

Mr Tritten had rightly claimed that the boom of wind energy in Germany had created ten thousands of new jobs in the industry during the past years. He had a word of caution for developing countries including India, "Avoid relying on unsustainable energy forms such as fossil, fuels and nuclear."

Hopefully, the Kyoto Protocol will come into force next year, either before or at CoP-9. Until then, the giant polar bear will have to sweat it out at the Hudson Bay.

(The author is a senior advocate and environment policy and law analyst based in Nilgiris.)

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