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Harihar Swarup

NOW that Mr NarendraModi has achieved a convincing victory in the Gujarat elections, speculation is rife about the future of the State, in particular that of the minority community. Indications are that Mr Modi will adopt a soft stance towards the Muslims. He has nothing more to gain by whipping up a communal frenzy, and knows that a soft-Muslim line is in the interest of the State he is hoping to preside over for the next five years.

The second vital question is whether the Gujarat poll experiment will be attempted in the States — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Delhi — where Assembly elections are due next November. Himachal Pradesh is going to the polls three months from now (in March 2003), and may be the test case for the Gujarat-type experiment. It is possible that the VHP's Praveen Togadia and Mr Modi himself will be roped in to campaign in these States. Except for Himachal Pradesh, the other States are Congress-ruled, and should be prepared for Gujarat-style campaigning. It is too early to say if the Hindutva card will work in these States, but it will certainly be used.

Reports from Ahmedabad indicate how the Hindu votes got polarised in favour of the BJP days before the polling thanks to a mysterious fatwa issued by an Imam — and carried with banner headlines in local papers — appealing to Muslims to vote en bloc for the Congress(I).

In response, the VHP issued another appeal asking the electorate to vote for the BJP for the "safety and security of Hindus". With most local Congress leaders away campaigning in far-flung areas, the AICC General Secretary, Mr Kamal Nath and Mr Suresh Pachori, MP, coordinated the campaign at the headquarters in Ahmedabad. They not only ignored the edict but thought it would help them.

What happened was just the contrary. The Hindu votes got polarised in favour of the BJP. It is a still a mystery who issued the appeal that sent wrong signals to the electorate. It might have been a ploy by the BJP, said a senior Congress leader. BJP leaders say the fatwa was the handiwork of a section of Congressmen.

One reason for the Congress rout is said to be over-confidence, particularly after impressive turnouts at Ms Sonia Gandhi's election meetings. Also, there was the problem of faction fights. This time apparently the Amarsinh Chaudhary faction acted against the Shankarsinh Vaghela group.

There was also a feeling that the Congress(I) was not sure of its plank. It started off with development issues, and kept out the communalism issues. But midway, it began to adopt what came to be known as the "soft Hindutva" line. The BJP did not miss the opportunity to dub the Congress as the B-team of the VHP. Obviously, there cannot be two brands of "Hindutva"; soft and hard.

Having taken the Muslim electorate for granted, the Congress think-tank may have thought it would be a good strategy to woo the Hindu voters, even if it meant diluting the party's basic ideology of secularism. The tactics proved counter-productive.

Generally by-elections are no indication of a full-fledged poll, but the BJP sweep in three Assembly by-elections in Rajasthan, along with the simultaneous victory in Gujarat, has sent shock waves in Congress circles and is seen as a warning sign.

In the last Assembly polls in Rajasthan, the Congress(I) routed the BJP in almost in the same way as the former has been routed in Gujarat.

These electoral setbacks seem to have shaken the Congress(I) leaders, especially after the party's impressive performance in the J&K elections and the formation of a coalition government, led by Mufti Mohammed Sayeed.

But to come back to Gujarat, what the State needs is the early revival of trade and industry and ensuring livelihood to the daily wage-earner.

Mr Modi, at least in his second term as Chief Minister, should understand that that slogans of development will remain shallow unless there is complete harmony.

(The author, a former Bureau Chief of PTI, is a Delhi-based coumnist.)

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