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Kohinoor Mandal

KOLKATA, Jan. 10

A DAY after buyers have called a nationwide strike from January 18 over the Tea (Marketing) Control Order 2003 (TMCO), a series of questions are being raised in concerned industry circles.

Will the strike be at all effective? Can the buyers stop private sales? Will the transporters support the strike? How long will the buyers maintain their unity? How long will they be able to withstand pressure from the Union government and producers?

Industry sources say if the tea trade comes to a halt totally, as threatened by the buyers, there is hardly any possibility of a crisis in tea supplies as enough stocks are already available in the market for the next three months.

``As per general industry norms, all major players maintain a 2-3 months' stock. Smaller players are also holding quite a significant amount of tea. Hence, shortage of tea in the market can be categorically ruled out,'' sources told Business Line.

However, the question is whether the buyers representing different auction centres will be able to maintain their unity. Sources say while members of one auction centre are totally adamant and want a total withdrawal of TMCO, others are not so aggressive on this issue.

``Most of the buyers want some amendments in the TMCO so that the strict guidelines set against them are softened. They also want similar guidelines for producers. They want the direct sales from tea gardens also to be monitored. So, there are differences in opinions among the buyers too,'' the sources say.

The small time transporters will play a significant role behind the success of the strike. Sources wondered: "How can you ensure that not a single truck owner would be lifting teas straight from the gardens?''.

Another relevant question is whether private sales will come to a stop. The producers and top officials of Union commerce ministry are unperturbed by the strike call as they are confident that private sales will continue. The buyers hold a different view as they feel that tea garden owners will not get the clientele.

The role of major corporate houses like Hindustan Lever, Tata Tea and Duncans, among others, is another crucial question. All these companies are not just big producers of tea but they are also major buyers.

Despite all these factors, sources felt, the timing of the strike was perfect. At present, there is hardly any good quality tea in the market and the prices are depressed too. Hence, there will certainly be some impact of the strike call on the tea trade as a whole.

``It will be interesting to see what happens in March, when the first flush teas from Darjeeling gardens arrive. They are the most premium quality of tea and every buyer would like to stock some of it. Similarly, the second flush CTC will come in by end June or early July. Can the buyers afford to keep themselves away from the market?,'' a source asked.

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