The Hindu Business Line : All set for Round One

EVERY THING is set for the electoral battle in five States, including four in the Hindi heartland. The Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Delhi, Rajasthan and Mizoram assume special significance as their outcome is likely to set the stage for the big showdown — the Lok Sabha elections less than a year away. Except the tiny State of Mizoram, the polity in the crucially placed four Hindi heartland States is bipolar, with the Congress(I) and the BJP as the principle adversaries. But both sides are precariously placed and a slight swing could make or mar the electoral fortune of each.

For both sides the stakes are high and, therefore, the campaigning was, as expected, fierce. Both sides marshalled all their resources to galvanise their cadres, and missed no trick to woo the voter.

Bolstered by favourable poll surveys, the morale in the Congress camp was high while the BJP, much into the campaigning, was busy stemming the discontent among its workers at various levels over distribution of ticket. The Congress President snatched the initiative from her rivals and in her campaigning accused the Vajpayee Government of being involved in scams and scandals. The recent incident involving the Union Minister of State for Environment, Mr Dalip Singh Judev, who is being projected as BJP's chief ministerial candidate in Chhatisgarh came in handy for the Congress to substantiate its allegations of corruption in the Government.

The BJP too campaigned long and hard, led by its stars, the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and his deputy, Mr L. K. Advani. Many of its over 800 meetings and rallies were graced by film stars for added impact.Yet, that the BJP lacked in confidence became obvious when it asked its chief ministerial candidate in Rajasthan, Ms Vansudhra Raje, to file her nomination papers from two constituencies. The decision was later rescinded following pressure from workers. This shaky start coupled with widespread resentment in the State. Leadership over `foisting' of Ms Vasundhra Raje has resulted in confusion and demoralisation at grassroots level. The situation is no better in Delhi and Chhatisgarh. This is the first election that the BJP is fighting in Rajasthan, without Mr Bharion Singh Shekhawat, who strode the State's political scene like a colossus for about three decades.

The obvious beneficiary of his absence was the Congress. And its Chief Minister, Mr Ashok Gehlot, succeeded in retaining his image as a serious, honest and sincere leader.Mr Gehlot's handling of the drought situation did come under criticism but this year's generous monsoon came to his rescue. He was also able to turn the tables on the BJP by accusing the Centre of discriminating against Rajasthan and not releasing funds to enable the State tide over the situation.

The Congress had some problem with Jats who form a sizeable section of the population in Rajasthan but the party offereingsome inducements to the community leaders has showed results, according to Congress sources in Delhi.

In Delhi, the Congress(I) basked in the feel-good factor. In 1998, onion prices washed away the BJP Government headed by Mrs Sushma Swaraj. The Congress Government in Delhi has so far been problem free. It was able to control pollution by introducing CNG-run buses. Construction of a number of flyovers to ensure smooth flow of traffic was its other major achievement. Despite being an outsider, Mrs Sheela Dixit was able to make her mark. A measure of Central leadership's faith and confidence in visible in the number of tickets her supporters have got.

The BJP, on the other hand, is on a weak wicket. It has no grassroots leader except Mr Madan Lal Khurana, who was driven to the fringe because of factionalism. Belatedly, the party high command "handed over" Delhi to Mr Khurana to retrieve the situation. But in view of the changed profile of Delhi, he may not be the answer. In the last ten years, the exodus from UP and Bihar has changed the demographic profile of Delhi. The Punjabi community, which once dominated the political scene in Delhi, has ceased to be a leading factor in the formation of government. Its influence is now limited to just about dozen seats. The BJP leadership seems to be out of step with the changed reality.

In Chhatisgarh, there was no visible incumbency factor as the State is going to the polls first time after it broke off from Madhya Pradesh. Mr Ajit Jogi, though surrounded by a host of controversies, has turned out to be a shrewd manager. He brought about a split in the State legislature party, exposing the BJP's claim that it was a party with a difference. Unnerved by mounting pressure from the Centre and a CBI inquiry against him for faking some documents, Mr Jogi engineered the defection of a BJP MP just as the party was preparing for Assembly elections. He has been able to turn the tables on the BJP on the CBI inquiry, describing it as another incident of excess against a Dalit leader.

The BJP's inability to project any one as its chief ministerial candidate also helped him. The NCP, which was earlier considered as a challenge to the Congress, is now seen as spoil sport for the BJP. A vague fear that some BJP nominees may withdraw from the contest at the instance of Mr Jogi in favour of the Congress is haunting the BJP leadership at the Centre. .

In the adjoining Madhya Pradesh, Mr Digvijay Singh is, however, fighting with his back to the wall, as incumbency factor is high in the State. The wily Diggy Raja had managed the almost impossible task in 1998 when he outwitted an overconfident BJP by securing the support of the BSP. But this time the BSP is a divided house and the break-away faction is working in tandem with BJP in the state. The problem of power and bad roads has come in handy to the BJP to corner the Congress Government.

Besides, Mr Digvijay Singh is also having some problems within his own party. During his 10-year tenure, Diggy Raja has rubbed many senior leaders on the wrong side. Though he managed to get away securing tickets for his own people, a section of central leadership is not favourably disposed towards him and would like to leave him on his own. If he wins the elections, the credit will go to Ms Sonia Gandhi and if he loses, the blame will be on him.

The BJP has, on the other hand, put its best foot forward. It has projected a Dalit leader as its chief ministerial candidate. Ms Uma Bharati is a woman and a strong votary of Hindutva. The party enlisted the Gujarat Chief Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, as a star campaigner to replicate Gujarat experiment. Things will unravel when the people in the five States go to the polling stations.

(The author is a Delhi-based political journalist.)

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