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Thursday, Dec 04, 2003

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Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

BEARS were in control of the initial hours of Wednesday's trading activity. Later on, bulls made a strong recovery and recouped their losses. Neither the bulls nor the bears could gain much from the day's trading.

The market sentiment reading of the tradeable counters remains bullish. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

Nifty futures recommendation: The near month December contract went down by seven points. Thereafter bulls made a strong comeback and recovered their early losses. The December contract moved within a band of 23 points. It closed with a gain of six points with respect to previous close.

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The long position in the December contract remains undisturbed. The exit level has now been moved closer. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to terminate the uptrend in the December contract. Bearish trigger level has also been moved closer.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradeable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Reliance Industries moved to the fifth position followed by ACC and Wipro. Trading activity in GAIL was quite impressive on Wednesday with more than 3,000 trades.

Bear domination on Thursday is likely to terminate the uptrend in ACC, Maruti, Reliance Industries and Tata Steel. Bulls are unlikely to have any opportunity for Thursday's trading. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. The best bet is likely to be the selling in Tata Steel. This counter is in the uptrend. Its exit and bearish trigger levels are placed closer to its current level. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger these levels.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradeable list in this segment underwent a change. NIIT gained entry with the exit of M&M. Reliance Industries moved to the fourth position followed by SAIL and Infosys. The uptrend in ACC, Punjab Bank and State Bank are likely to be terminated at 232.70, 181.95 and 470.20, respectively.

Except for the uptrend in Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to be safe. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Maruti, Reliance Industries and Tata Steel. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Reliance Industries. The best among the above is likely to be the selling in Tata Steel. Its sell level is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear move on Thursday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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