The Hindu Business Line : Will it be win-win in Kashmir too?

There have been a slew of positive developments, the most important being the warming up of the India-Pakistan relationship. This should bring much relief to Jammu and Kashmir, especially the Valley that has been under a siege the last 15 years. But will this happen, wonders Rasheeda Bhagat.

The Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and the Pakistan President, Gen Pervez Musharraf... For the first time a simultaneous and concrete attempt is being made to address the Kashmir issue.

THE ADJECTIVE `win-win' seems to be the flavour of the moment. The Americans, who cannot quite make up their minds whether or not they should take credit for playing a behind-the-scene role in the new opening in India-Pakistan ties, have endorsed the popular perception that the latest peace initiative between the two nations is a `win-win situation' for both. An essential description because the leadership of neither country can afford to give the impression to its people that it has backed down before the other.

On Monday, Mr Karl F. Inderfurth, the former US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, said that the US President, Mr George W. Bush's statement pledging to share nuclear and space technology and other hi-tech co-operation between India and US was a win-win situation for both the countries.

And now we have the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr L. K. Advani, saying in an expansive mood that as on the Indo-Pak front, why could we not have a `win-win' on the Ayodhya issue too. This can be done and a temple built there. Media reports quoting him did not mention whether Mr Advani's concept of a win-win in Ayodhya included the rebuilding of the mosque that was razed to the ground in December 1992. However, one would like to give him the benefit of doubt and conclude that a win-win for both the communities would mean the construction of both a mandir and a masjid in Ayodhya.

But the mood is definitely upbeat in the National Democratic Alliance, particularly the BJP camp, where the consensus is that even an attempt to improve ties with Pakistan will only add to the party's chances of winning in the general elections.

But the ice is melting so fast in Indo-Pak relationship that one is only afraid of skidding. While there is no need to be pessimistic, experience shows that both the countries have tended to go around in circles — rather than move forward — on the thorny issues involved in sorting out their messy relations. But at least this time around there seems to be sincerity on the side that matters — India. Hence we have for the first time a simultaneous and concrete attempt being made to address the thorniest issue in our bilateral ties — that of Kashmir.

At long last the Hurriyat Conference has got what it has been clamouring for the last few years; a dialogue with the Centreat the highest level. Former Hurriyat chief Mr Umar Farooq had told Business Line in an earlier interview that when the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, could talk to the Naga rebels, and that too outside India, what was the problem in his talking to Kashmiri leaders from the Hurriyat. Why do they insist that only people like K. C. Pant or N. N. Vohra, who had no real powers to decide anything, will talk to us, he had asked, adding that if the Prime Minister was too busy, at least Mr Advani could talk to the Hurriyat leaders.

Well, the Hurriyat leaders' displeasure has been addressed and Mr Advani has indeed invited them for talks on January 22, even going so far as to say that he is willing to meet the leaders individually if they wanted. This has, predictably, pleased the Hurriyat camp with its chief, Moulana Abbas Ansari, expressing happiness at this development. Talking to The Hindu on Monday after he received the fax invitation, the delighted Moulana said, "We wholeheartedly welcome the invitation. We had asked for talks at the highest level and we have got the same."

The favourite phrase, `win-win', was back in play with the Hurriyat chief adding, "We will try to reach a solution that would be a win-win for India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris."

The Hurriyat executive will meet on Thursday to decide on the leaders from the various parties who would form the Hurriyat delegation. It is also obvious that a last-ditch attempt will be made to bring back into the fold the breakaway faction of the Hurriyat headed by the Jammat-e-Islami's Syed Ali Shah Geelani, the hardliner believed to be close to Pakistan. Unfortunately for the Hurriyat, the invitation they have been waiting for comes at a time when there is a deep divide between the moderates and the hardliners.

But whatever united face the Hurriyat manages to put together before January 22, it cannot be denied that the people in the Valley will have a lot of expectations from the Hurriyat leaders' meeting with Mr Advani. The rest of India might dispute the representative nature of the Hurriyat, and remain angry with a group that is perceived to be "pro-Pakistan" and that has persistently shied away from contesting elections in Jammu and Kashmir. But within the Valley the clout of the Hurriyat is undeniable. Time and again Dr. Farooq Abdullah's National Conference has been dubbed `pro-India' and the former J&K Chief Minister described as an "agent of New Delhi", while the Hurriyat has been hailed for resisting the temptation to gain power through the ballot before the Kashmir issue was resolved.

The charge against the NC is that instead of confronting the Centre in order to take up the cause of Kashmiris, it has become a partner with it to enjoy the spoils of office. The NC's decision to ally with the BJP-led NDA was considered the last straw and though it parted ways with the NDA before the last Assembly elections, the people rejected the NC in favour of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's People's Democratic Party.

The NC chief, Mr Omar Abdullah, has admitted time and again that its alliance with the BJP cost it Kashmiri votes in the last elections and should be taken as a hard lesson. It will be interesting to watch which way the NC turns in the coming Lok Sabha elections.

But while elections will come and go, what the people of Jammu and Kashmir, whose lives have been torn apart by 15 years of violence and trauma and 57 years of uncertainty and suspicion, need is enduring peace. This, unfortunately for them, is linked to India and Pakistan sorting out their problems and deciding to live as good neighbours. Only a solution to the Indo-Pak impasse can save them from the violence unleashed by the jehadi elements, on the one side, and the alleged high-handedness of the Indian army as it tries to flush out the militants from the Valley. Any peace move is, thus, naturally welcome to the people of the State who have a lot of hope, particularly in Mr Vajpayee's sincerity in resolving the Indo-Pak impasse. But they have seen too many initiatives from him in the recent past fail — either because of hawks within the BJP, or due to Pakistan's misadventures like Kargil — and cannot help being sceptical about any real progress this time around.

But if Mr Vajpayee has become a national hero for daring to once again attempt peace with Islamabad, the Pakistani President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, has faced pretty rough times at home particularly from the religious fundamentalists, who have accused him of bending over backwards, and that too at the beckoning of Washington, to make peace with India.

But some sections of the Pakistan media, reading the writing on the wall that Pakistan would be the greater beneficiary of peace with India than the other way round, have hailed his bold initiative and courage in walking half the distance to shake hands with Mr Vajpayee.

Referring to an editorial suggestion in The Times of London that for the General's display of courage Pakistan should be rewarded by re-admittance to the Commonwealth, Mr A. Cowasjee, a noted columnist in the Paksitani English daily Dawn, writes, "If Musharraf has now correctly assessed the worth of his nation, realised its inherent strengths and weaknesses, and has decided to steer it accordingly, he is an exceptionally courageous man. He has perhaps, and hopefully, also finally realised that it is far more difficult to steer towards peace than to rush into a war and then lose it."

But, he adds, noting the "calibre" of the men around him, "one must not disregard the fact that bullies take themselves to be larger than life and stronger than the strong.

The saving grace is that they are inherently cowards, which, if one has their measure, should make them easier to tackle. Assassinations and violence are tactics used by bullboys. With a will, and a well thought out way, they can be dealt with. Educated citizens, formally and truly educated, will not think in terms of violence; they will not forever wish to live with daggers drawn."

Sound advice indeed, but unfortunately there are so many power lobbies in Pakistan that it is likely to fall on deaf ears.

(Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)

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