The Hindu Business Line : A spring of hope for Kashmir

Mr L. K. Advani has concluded a successful session with the Hurriyat leaders. But there is still a long way to go for lasting peace to return to the Valley even if Mr Vajpayee's popularity among Kashmiris is such that he can contest elections from the State. The Congress appears to have no real answers but to draw from the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty — now, Priyanka and Rahul, says Rasheeda Bhagat.

The Deputy Prime Minister, Mr L.K. Advani, with the Hurriyat Conference leaders... Is this the beginning of lasting peace in Kashmir? — Shanker Chakravarty.

LAST WEEK the political India was witness to two events of note: The first was of Congressmen refusing to see the light and continuing to make silly statements that Priyanka Vadra and Rahul Gadhi being members of Congress "right from birth". The second was more positive and significant. The Centre at long last satisfying the Hurriyat Conference demand that it talk to them at the highest level.

Taking first the second event, which has a more serious bearing on the future of India: Who would have imagined that the chemistry between the "iron man" of the BJP, the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr L. K. Advani, and the Hurriyat leaders would work so wonderfully? But it did, leading Hurriyat chief Maulvi Abbas Ansari to exclaim that he had thought only the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, to be a dove, but was astonished to find his deputy too of the same strain.

Mr Advani, on his part, was at his gracious best. Noting the Hurriyat leaders' desire to talk to Mr Vajpayee, he walked the extra mile to pick up the telephone and fix up the appointment with the Prime Minister for the Hurriyat leaders.

But despite the firm handshakes, the warm smiles and the photo-ops in Delhi, the important thing is that this time around both the sides are treading cautiously on the new roadmap towards peace.

Commenting on the Hurriyat leaders' historic meetings with the Prime Minister and his deputy, Prof Basheer Ahmed Dabla, Head of the Sociology Department of Kashmir University, told Business Line: "This is a very positive development for the Kashmiri people. Even though it should have happened much earlier, it is better late than never. I think the most important outcome of this meeting is that both the sides have taken a very pragmatic approach; they have called this meeting neither a success nor a failure, preferring to call it only the beginning."

Another crucial factor, he points out, is the realisation and admission that this group of the Hurriyat does not represent the Kashmir political spectrum , as hard-core and pro-Pakistan leaders such as the Jamaat-e-Islami chief, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, have not joined the talks. Nor have the JKLF chairman, Mr Mohammad Yasin Malik, and the Democratic Freedom Party chief, Mr Shabir Ahmad Shah. Conscious of this, the Hurriyat leaders have been saying that they will try to include all shades of opinion in the dialogue as the ultimate aim is to find a solution to the Jammu and Kashmir problem and bring peace to the region.

On his part, Mr Advani was categorical that the Kashmiri Pundits who had been forced to flee from the Valley and who were living as refugees in their own country would also have to be included in the dialogue process. Right now the Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's People's Democratic Party is giving the dialogue its blessings from a distance but very soon "nationalist parties" such as the PDP and the National Conference would also have to be roped in.

But what enthuses Prof Dabla most is that "this time the Government of India has not frowned upon or dismissed outright" the Hurriyat's suggestion of travelling to Pakistan to hold a dialogue with the militants.

When asked how important such a step would be, the academic says: "The root cause of the problem in the Indian side of Kashmir has been the activities of militants who have a base, or rather several bases, across the border. And they cannot be controlled from here."

Responding to the scepticism at the Hurriyat's ability to rein in the jehadi elements — after all Hizb-ul-Mujahideen supreme Commander Syed Salahuddin has already described the meeting between Indian leadership and the Hurriyat leaders as a "conspiracy for declaring Kashmir an internal matter of India" — Prof Dabla maintains that the Hurriyat leaders who met Mr Vajpayee and Mr Advani, do have pockets of influence on the Pakistani side of Kashmir too, as they do on the Indian side.

Asked if there was any chance of this faction of the Hurriyat being roped into contesting the coming Lok Sabha elections, Prof Dabla says he sees nil chance for this.

"Such a development would discredit them completely, and Kashmiris will then say that they had gone on the pretext of talking to the Indian Government, but had actually gone seeking power through elections. So this is unlikely to happen."

But he does agree that the progress on the Indo-Pak front at the SAARC summit in Islamabad and the agreement to have a dialogue in February, coupled with the Hurriyat-Advani talks have all raised hope in the Valley. "People are definitely hopeful and would be much more relaxed but for the fact that somehow or the other violence in their lives continues. Every day we have either 10-15 people dying, becoming victims of either the security forces or the militants; and custodial deaths continue unabated."

Coming to the mother of all problems — finding a lasting solution to the Kashmir problem — Prof Dabla says: "This is a very complex issue. It now looks as though both the Hurriyat as well as Pakistan have decided not to insist on plebiscite. With this out of the picture, and it also being certain that a superpower like India will never allow Kashmir to secede and get total independence, what I see feasible is some kind of a semi-independent status or autonomy."

But, he adds, no solution will work if Pakistan is left out of the picture. What would work, he thinks, is autonomy for both the Kashmirs, but under the joint supervision of India and Pakistan.

In Kashmir itself, cracks are appearing in the 15-month-old Mufti Government — a Congress(I)-PDP coalition — and barely a couple of days ago, the J&K Chief Minister, Mufti Sayeed, threatened to dissolve the Assembly and seek a fresh mandate.

If this does happen, it would be interesting to see if the PDP would dump the Congress(I) and join the NDA as an ally in the coming elections. The National Conference chief, Mr Omar Abdullah, has already said that his earlier decision not to fight any election as an ally of the BJP stands. He believes that the Kashmiri Muslims rejected the NC in the 2002 Assembly elections for its joining the NDA Government.

But the irony is that today the same Muslims in the Valley love Mr Vajpayee for his statesmanship and sincerity in attempting to find a solution to the Kashmir problem.

And so we had on the Republic Day the State's Finance Minister and PDP leader, Muzaffar Hussain Baig, inviting Mr Vajpayee to contest the Lok Sabha polls from Kashmir, where, said the PDP leader, he would win hands down. "Mr Vajpayee's popularity among Kashmiris is unmatched for his bold initiatives to improve relations with Pakistan and hold talks with separatist Kashmiri leaders to give peace a chance. I hope he will consider the request. I don't think any party will put up a candidate against him."

So, what is the Congress(I)'s response to a Hindu Prime Minister who is believed to be so popular in the Valley that he can contest and win a Lok Sabha seat from there? Unleashing on the nation two more beta-beti of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. All along we have been told, and Congressmen led to believe, that when Priyanka and Rahul decide to enter full time politics, all of Congress' woes will disappear into thin air.

Now that the Congress(I) has used this Brahmastra, what is the BJP's response? A sensible response would have been to laugh loud and hard. But, as Prof P. V. Indiresan pointed out in these columns on Monday, politicians do not like doing anything positive. And laughter is certainly positive energy. They like to bleat and whimper all the time.

So predictably enough, the BJP, which should have derived comfort and joy from an excessively successful hard sell of the `India shining' mantra, has gone into a fit of rage at seeing two fresh, young faces from the family it probably hates most, being splashed across the front pages of newspapers. With the speculation gaining ground that the siblings will contest the Lok Sabha polls from the two family constituencies of Amethi and Rai Bareilly, the whimpering has begun in the BJP camp, "We told you, the Congress-I wants to instil dynasty rule in this country... (sniff...sniff)..."

Actually, they should be celebrating. So deep is the Congress leaders' belief in the mystical and magic power of the Nehru-Gandhi family's ability to lead it to victory, that now that Priyanka and Rahul have at least made a public appearance and the former has stated that the toofan from Amethi will succeed in BJP's safaya (destruction), there are bright prospects of Congressmen switching into a snooze mode after this declaration. It should be no surprise if they actually believe that the very presence of the mother and the siblings would be enough to win the election, and there would be no need for the grime, sweat and tears that every election invariably involves at the ground level.

Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in