The Hindu Business Line : Elections 2004: Early lead for NDA

The NDTV-Indian Express-AC Nielsen poll survey all but puts the NDA back in the saddle, and predicts a further fall of the Congress. This, says Rasheeda Bhagat, is mainly because of the BJP's ability to sew-up alliances, a department where the Grand Old Party has failed.

A bright first picture for the BJP.

THE RESULTS of the first comprehensive pre-poll survey, done by NDTV, Indian Express and AC Nielsen, reiterate the expected — that the National Democratic Alliance will romp home comfortably. The news for the Congress(I) could not have been worse — the poll puts the party's tally in the next Lok Sabha at less than 100; a prediction that has been made by a section of the media and political pundits.

But the poll — conducted between March 5 and 18, with the sample size of a whopping 45,478 and spread over 207 of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies in 18 States — gives the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance 287-307 seats. Even if this is a near-accurate reflection of the public sentiment, then a BJP-led alliance is within sniffing distance of power in Delhi once again. Clearly, a good monsoon and an economically resurgent India are all set to do the trick for the NDA, along with reasonably good governance, though blotted by the communal carnage in Gujarat in 2002. Aiding the NDA, as it were, is an emaciated Congress(I) that has failed to sew up alliances in States that matter the most, particularly Uttar Pradesh. Small wonder then that the NDA brass did not want to risk an indifferent or truant monsoon this year and hence the care to complete the electoral exercise before the first monsoon cloud could darken or dodge Indian skies.

An exhaustive exercise, not only in the size of the sample but also the kind and number of questions asked of respondents, the good news the Indian Express-NDTV-AC Nielsen survey brings for the BJP is that its largest electoral gains are likely to be in the States where it had triumphed in the most recent Assembly elections. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are expected to bring in the BJP a chunk of MPs. As a bonus, the women Chief Ministers of MP and Rajasthan enjoy a huge approval rating; Ms Uma Bharti gets 65 per cent and Ms Vasundhara Raje Scindia 62 per cent — both well above the national average for chief ministers.

In case you think people prefer women chief ministers, you need to take a look at Tamil Nadu where the Chief Minister, Ms J. Jayalalithaa gets only an miserable approval rating of 20 per cent; the lowest reserved for any chief minister in the country. What a come down for Tamil Nadu's "revolutionary leader" that even Bihar's Rabri Devi, a politician by compulsion and not by choice, enjoys a higher approval rating than she does?

Thus, the BJP has every reason to be smiling, as it readies to occupy once again the corridors of power in Delhi, having done the smart thing in getting its alliance arithmetic right. This it has done in almost all States except perhaps Tamil Nadu where, going by the Indian Express-NDTV-AC Nielsen survey, the tie-up with the AIADMK, which brought down the Vajpayee Government in 1999, will cost it dear. According to the poll, the BJP-AIADMK coalition will get of the 40 seats (39 in Tamil Nadu plus one in Pondicherry) a mere five seats with the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Front bagging 35.

The drifting away from the BJP of the old allies — the DMK, the MDMK and the PMK — could, going by the survey, hit the BJP, which appears to have snuggled up to the AIADMK, influenced by that party's huge victory in the 2001 Assembly elections. But three years is a long time and the anti-incumbency factor may well be at work.

If, indeed, the BJP has blundered in Tamil Nadu, the Congress(I) appears to have hit it right in, and only in, the State. Even if in the numbers game Tamil Nadu is not crucial in government formation, the BJP will have to do some soul searching for allowing allies such as the DMK and the MDMK to drift away. This was, of course, done more at behest of the State unit of the BJP, than the party high command, though Ms Jayalalithaa has a staunch supporter in the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr L. K. Advani. According to observers, by not doing more than paying lip sympathy when the DMK chief, Mr M. Karunanidhi, was put through the trauma of a midnight arrest and watching helplessly as Ms Jayalalithaa used its own ingenious find — POTA — against an NDA ally, the MDMK chief, Mr Vaiko, the BJP may have paved the way for the exit of both the parties.

As for the PMK, surely Dr S. Ramadoss, its founder, has not forgotten the humiliation meted out to him when he struck a deal with the AIADMK in 2001 for the Assembly elections. The outcome of the general elections will be indeed interesting in Tamil Nadu, the one State that will be as keenly watched as Uttar Pradesh where the Congress(I) has failed miserably to tie up an alliance with either the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party.

The survey's projections give the Congress five seats in UP. And pathetic is the manner in which the party is wooing the SP chief, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, who is simply not interested.

And thereby hangs another poll tale. Mr Mulayam Singh's refusal to join a "secular front" can be explained away by saying that this is his gratitude to the BJP for not stumping the formation of an SP government in UP after the fall of the Mayawati regime last year. But surely this is not all. The fact that Mr Mulayam Singh has decided to enter the fray by announcing his candidature from Mainpuri, is enough indicator of his aspiration for the topmost slot, in case of a hung Parliament. While the Lucknow gaddi can be entrusted to anybody from the substantial number of politicians his family comprises, he does not want to miss out on the chance of becoming either the king or the kingmaker in the unlikely event of the electorate giving a mixed verdict.

That a shrewd politician like him still strives to play an important role in New Delhi should be an eye-opener for political pundits. As the analysis accompanying the Indian Express-NDTV-AC Nielsen survey states, opinion polls reflect people's preferences at that particular time and single events can transform public mood quite dramatically. "Witness the recent elections in Spain where a likely winner lost decisively due to the blasts that occurred in Madrid on the eve of the polls," it says, adding the caveat that the group has commissioned one more survey closer to the election date as also an exit poll.

Barring major surprises, the NDA looks all set for another five-year term, and the Congress(I) is headed towards a marginal role in the country's politics. Well- known journalist M. J. Akbar's recalling of a Talat Mehmood yesteryear melody "Sab kuch lutake hosh mei aaye tau kya kiya (What is the use of regaining your senses after losing everything) aptly sums up the Congress(I)'s plight. It sat on its high horse for too long, without understanding the power of coalition politics, while the BJP was not just quick on the uptake but mastered its nuances.

Even ahead of the UP Assembly elections the Congress failed to reach any kind of alliance with either the SP or the BSP; and there was a replay of this during the crucial Assembly elections to the four States in the Hindi heartland last year. Once again it has failed in UP.

But a surprise from the Congress(I) is Rahul Gandhi, who makes his debut in this election. The man who had attracted derisive comments for just standing up and applauding staidly while his sister Priyanka leapt out of her seat for joy as India won the first one-day cricket match in Karachi, may yet turn out to be a dark horse. In this election he might make no more impact than winning Amethi, but his body language, seen as he responded to journalists' queries and interacted with the voters in Amethi, do hold out promise. The young scion from the Nehru-Gandhi stable does seem to have a spark.

Who would be able to spot this better than a BJP leader like Mr Pramod Mahajan, who keeps insisting that Rahul and Priyanka's entry into politics holds no threat to the BJP? This may be true for the 2004 elections but, as they say, kal kisney dekha hei? (who has seen tomorrow?)

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in