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Tuesday, May 11, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters continued to remain bearish. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. On the other hand, it is likely to continue with the added strength.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: Monday's market action witnessed bears gaining complete control over the day's trading activity. The May month contract opened with a bearish gap of six points. The Intra day Movement in the May contract was around 44 points. It closed with a loss of 41 points from the previous close.

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The downtrend in the May month contract gained with bear domination on Monday. Both the exit and bullish levels are placed quite far away. These levels are unlikely to be triggered on Tuesday.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had few changes. Maruti gained entry while ACC moved out of the tradable list. The ranking of the list had a minor change with Reliance Industries moving to the fourth place followed by Satyam computers and Infosys.

The top three traded counters in the list are Tata Steel, Maruti and Tata Motors. Trading activity in Punjab Bank was hectic with 1356 trades on Monday.

There are no uptrend counters in the tradable list. All the counters in the list are in downtrend. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate downtrend in almost five counters in the list. ONGC is likely to have the lone bullish opportunity for Tuesday. It remains to be the best for Tuesday's trading. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

Cash Segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. However, the ranking of the list underwent changes. Maruti occupied third position followed by ONGC, State Bank, Satyam Computers and Infosys. Bear domination on Monday resulted in the initiation of downtrend in the recommended counter - ONGC.

Except for the sideways in Canara Bank all the other counters in the list are in downtrend. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate almost six downtrend counters in the list. Buying opportunity is likely to exist in ONGC. The best buy for Tuesday is likely to be ONGC. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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