The Hindu Business Line : What went wrong with NDA-BJP's calculations?

BY afternoon on May 13, it was all over for the BJP-led NDA coalition at the Centre, barring the formality. That formality too was complied with in the evening, with the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, meeting the President to hand over the resignation of his Council of Ministers.

In an unexpected verdict which most BJP loyalists may find hard to swallow, the Indian electorate have directed the NDA coalition partners to hand over the baton to the Congress combine and sit in the Opposition benches.

For how long, will depend on how the Congress coalition conducts itself and governs for the good of the people and the economy at large.

And as the NDA partners prepare themselves mentally to sit in the opposition, it would also be time for some introspection, especially for the BJP.

Having taken the economy to seemingly great heights as far as matters such as the fisc, foreign exchange reserves, balance of payments, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the inflow of funds are concerned, what went wrong?

One only has to look slightly deeper and dispassionately to realise that the reasons for the reversal are numerous.

First and foremost, which some may argue is with the benefit of hindsight, was the timing of the elections.

The polls were advanced to politically cash in on the so-called feelgood factor that was in the air. As did Mr Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, for which he paid a heavy price.

Instead, the NDA and BJP party workers should have utilised these few months to fan out to the villages and gauge for themselves as to whether any feelgood factor had actually percolated down to the rural areas.

As the poll results now show, the answer would have been in the negative. Therefore, efforts should have been made to consolidate the situation by ameliorating the sufferings of the people.

Evidently again, as the poll results reveal, the feelgood factor appears to have remained confined to North Block (and South Delhi) in the Capital and the immediate surroundings of Dalal Street in Mumbai.

For, against a clean sweep of all the seven seats in Delhi the last time round, the BJP could manage to retain just one. The remaining six went to the Congress. Similar has been the situation in Mumbai.

Clearly, when the Delhiwallahs and Mumbaiites failed to appreciate the feelgood factor, how could the BJP expect any better from the rural areas in other States?

After all, a farmer needs timely supply of power, water, seeds and a good price for his produce. Good roads and cell-phones do not impress him if he cannot get his family two square meals a day.

The same can be said of the India Shining campaign, which largely failed to impress even the urban folks. In fact, some found the party calls on mobiles and landlines a nuisance.

Besides, the campaign was unveiled too early and so at the time when it should have peaked, it actually petered out. And this gave a chance to the Congress to take potshots at it and puncture holes in it.

As Mr Sandip Tarkas, CEO of Media Direction, the media arm of RK Swamy/BBDO, put it: "If you look at the results today, India Shining as a campaign has failed. But it is not exactly the campaign that did not work but the scheduling of the ads which has backfired on the BJP. The campaign peaked too early while the Congress got into the act much later. Even though the latter's campaign has been reactionary in nature, the BJP had nothing new to say in its pre-poll ads."

Even politically, the BJP committed a few mistakes. The biggest blunder was dissociating itself from the DMK in Tamil Nadu and taking in the AIADMK as its coalition partner.

Similarly, out of sheer confidence, the BJP refused to have any truck with Mr O.P. Chautala's Lok Dal in Haryana and the AGP in Assam, wherein the Congress may have gained in the splitting of votes.