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Saturday, Jun 05, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear-run arrested

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands strongly bearish with no uptrend counters.

Bull domination on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the open, the June contract lost six points. Later on, bulls took charge of the day's proceedings and wiped out their losses. The June contract moved within a band of 58 points. Bulls capitalised the day's entire move. June contract closed higher with a strong bullish note.

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The downtrend in the June contract remained intact. The exit and bullish trigger levels for June are placed closer to its current level. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to reverse the downtrend in the June contract.

Stock futures recommendation: The top-10 tradable list in this segment had changes. HPCL and Tata Power gained entry with the exit of ACC and Union Bank. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes.

Except for State Bank of India, all the other counters in the list are in the downtrend. Bull domination on Monday is likely to terminate most of the prevailing downtrend counters. Selling opportunities are unlikely to exist for Monday's trading.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in M&M, State Bank of India and Tata Motors. The best bet is likely to be State Bank of India. Bullish trigger level for State Bank of India is placed very close to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable in this segment remains unchanged. Friday's market action triggered the downtrend in the recommended counter - Infosys. However, this is likely to be under threat for Monday.

Except for HPCL, all other counters in the tradable list are in the downtrend. Bull pressure on Monday could be a threat to most of the downtrend counters. Bears are unlikely to have any opportunity for Monday's trading.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in GAIL, State Bank of India and Tata Steel. The best among the above is likely to be Tata Steel. This counter is in the downtrend. The exit and bullish trigger levels for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Monday has the potential to reverse the prevailing trend in Tata Steel.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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