The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon plays truant for yet another week

FOR the second successive week, the monsoon has failed virtually across the country. This may have a bearing on the prospects for growth, inflation and interest rates this year and also the success of the Budget proposals.

The monsoon arrived about two weeks ahead of schedule this year— advancing over Kerala on May 18.

The total rainfall received by the country during June 1-June 23 was 121.16 per cent of the long period average (LPA) that has been historically recorded over this period. This was over and above the 24.69 per cent excess rainfall (relative to LPA) in the pre-monsoon season extending from March 1 to May 31.

But the two weeks following that have been a disaster.

During the week ending June 30, the country as a whole got just 39.63 per cent of the normal LPA-based precipitation it receives at this time. And in the latest week ending July 7, the actual-against-LPA ratio was a mere 66.09 per cent.

If one takes the entire monsoon season from June 1 to July 30, the cumulative area-weighted average rainfall for the country, at 203 millimeters (mm), has been below 90 per cent of the corresponding LPA of 225.7 mm for this period. Compare this to the 121.16 per cent level for the period till June 23.

The rains have been particularly deficient in the South Peninsula region, which covers the four southern States, Lakshadweep and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands (See table).

The deficiency has been most pronounced in Telangana (minus 51 per cent), Rayalaseema (minus 46 per cent) and coastal Karnataka (minus 23 per cent).

The situation is equally bad in the north-eastern region, where, barring Bihar and West Bengal, there has been widespread rainfall deficiency. Matters are slightly better in Central India, covering Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Orissa. The problem of deficient rains is mainly confined to West MP and Vidarbha (minus 27 per cent each), even as there are indications of a dry spell in Gujarat (minus 14 per cent), Saurashtra and Kutch (minus 13 per cent) and Marathwada (minus 14 per cent). The crops facing significant moisture stress on this count include soyabean, groundnut and cotton.

North-west India has had satisfactory rains so far on excess precipitation in Jammu & Kashmir (52 per cent) and East UP (34 per cent).

On the other hand, the monsoon has been weak in West UP (minus 35 per cent), Punjab (minus 17 per cent) and both East and West Rajasthan (minus 35 and minus 27 per cent). While Punjab and West UP have a good irrigation infrastructure to protect against monsoon failure, it could nevertheless imply higher costs of cultivation for crops such as paddy and sugarcane.

The monsoon failure in Rajasthan may hit production of pulses and coarse cereals, especially bajra.

The coming week could well be a make-or-break for the country's farm sector.

The Deputy Director-General of the India Meteorological Department, Dr SK Subramanium, is hopeful that the monsoon will revive over Central India after a couple of days, which will subsequently cover the entire country.