The Hindu Business Line : Unfolding scenario a setback to kharif crop

Large parts of western and central India are reeling under acute moisture stress following prolonged lull in south-west monsoon since end-June. Sixteen of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country are facing deficient rainfall.

Entire Rajasthan, Gujarat and Punjab, Maharashtra's Vidharbha and Marathwada regions, western Uttar Pradesh, western Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh's Telengana are facing deficient rainfall of varying intensity, threatening the planted kharif crops and considerably slowing down further area coverage.

Field reports from various regions suggest area coverage for major kharif season crops — paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane — is considerably less than normal and below that of last year.

Rains have so far failed to materialise in the northern region, especially western Uttar Pradesh and Punjab delaying sowing. In other regions, planted crops thirsting for water are feeling stressed. Lack of supplemental irrigation is bound to hurt yields and output.

The question is not whether there will be crop loss; rather, what is the extent of crop loss. The estimate of crop decline can vary depending on the judgment as to area and yield expectation. It is too early put numbers to kharif 2004 crops, but the fact remains the harvest is going to suffer a setback.

While farmers, officials and everyone else are hoping for an revival of monsoon, it is clear that the kharif 2004 harvest will not only fall substantially short of production target, but also be below kharif 2003 numbers, whether it is grains (paddy, coarse cereals, pulses), oilseeds or cotton.

For instance, those associated with the soyabean industry expect a harvest of 55 lakh to 60 lakh tonne (lt), down from last year's 71 lt.

Groundnut crop is also likely to be lower than 60 lt harvested last year, probably around 45 lt-50 lt.

Last year, Gujarat contributed to an all-time record of about 30 lt; but this time despite planted to about 18 lakh hectares, output in the State could be around 15 lt only, while the crop in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka is not faring well. At the national level, a decline of about 25 lt-30 lt oilseeds from last year cannot be ruled out.

Rains towards end-July and in August will benefit cotton planting; but the country is likely to see crop production much less than 175 lakh bales of 2003-04. This will tighten supplies next year, constrict export possibilities and lead to larger imports as international prices are ruling weak.

If the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of a normal south-west monsoon eventually turns out to be correct and it rains copiously in August and September, drinking water and cattle fodder availability would be taken care of. Sub-soil moisture will prove positive for rabi crops.

Decline in crop production will hurt rural incomes, while competition from low priced imports can depress domestic prices. Policymakers have to recognise the imminent threat of an advancing drought and take steps to mitigate the rigours. The Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh's assurance in the Lok Sabha that the Government would extend all assistance to drought-affected people is the only silver lining to an otherwise murky scenario.

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