The Hindu Business Line : Cotton may gain from rains in growing areas

COTTON production is seen unaffected by a dry spell during July but excess rainfall could lead to pest attacks in growing States, key industry sources have said.

"The rainfall in the growing areas last week could help the crop in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. It will also help re-sowing to some extent," said Mr D.K. Nair, Secretary-General, Indian Cotton Mills Federation.

Industry sources said: "So far, the crop has been good. Area coverage has been better but excess rain could lead to pest attack."

Though the area under cotton was up initially, currently, it is lagging behind compared to the same period last year. Till August 4, 62.3 lakh hectares (lh) had been covered under cotton compared to 62.8 lh last year. The normal area under cotton is 88 lh. Cotton crop begins arriving in the market towards September-end or early October.

While area under cotton in Punjab is up one lh this year at 5.5 lh, in Haryana it is up 80,000 hectares at 6.1 lh. Coverage in Gujarat is also up at 15.1 lh (13.4 lh), it is down in Maharashtra at 22.2 lh (24.3 lh) mainly since regions such as Vidharbha had poor rainfall until last week.

"We could see sowing picking up in Vidharbha and western Madhya Pradesh after these rains. We expect a good crop this year too," Mr Nair said.

During the current season (October 2003-September 2004), cotton production is estimated at 167.5 lakh bales (of 170 kg) against 136 lakh bales the previous season.

"We expect the area under cotton to rise 10 per cent this sowing season," industry sources said. "Rains could have been delayed but our hopes are still alive," they said.

While Punjab and Haryana have had good rains, one worrying factor is the Ganganagar tract in Rajasthan. "Things are not fine there," trade sources said. This season, 7.5 lakh bales were from this region against 4.5 lakh bales the previous year.

Good price last year is one of the reasons for the rise in area under cotton in Gujarat and North India this year. With the crop in the US and Australia being affected by hot weather, global prices were up. This got reflected in the domestic prices and the farmers enjoyed a double bonus with a higher productivity to boot. The yield was 372 kg a hectare against 312 kg the previous season.

As a result, imports have declined to nine lakh bales from 17.6 lakh bales the previous year.

"As of now, prices are looking stable and this should help the farmers," trade sources said.

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