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Saturday, Sep 04, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

FRIDAY'S trading activity witnessed volatile movement. However, the bears managed to gain from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bullish. On the contrary, the sentiment reading is likely to turn bearish.

Nifty futures recommendation: The September month contract opened three points higher and subsequently fell. However, during the fag end of the day's trading, the bulls made a strong comeback and recouped their losses. The September contract moved within a band of 17 points. It closed with a gain of six points over Thursday's close.

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Friday's early market action triggered the uptrend in the September contract. Bear pressure during the mid-session led to the reversal of the initiated uptrend. The exit level for the short position in the September contract is also placed quite closer to its current level. Bullish trigger level for the September contract is also placed closer. Bull domination on Monday has the potential to trigger these levels.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top 10 tradable counters. Satyam moved to the sixth position followed by ACC and ONGC. Trading activity in Union Bank was quite hectic on Friday with more than 2,700 trades.

Except for the uptrend in Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in six counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Buying in Tata Steel is likely to be best for Monday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its last traded value. Bull move on Monday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in Tata Steel.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top 10 counters in this segment remains unchanged. Bears were successful in triggering the downtrend in the recommended counter-Tata Motors.

Bull move on Monday is likely to terminate the downtrend in ONGC, SAIL and Tata Motors. On the contrary, the uptrend in Reliance, Satyam and State Bank is likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in seven counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Buying in Wipro is likely to be the best bet for Monday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed within Rs 3 from its closing price. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Wipro.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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