The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon seen ending 12 pc below normal

THE wagging tail of monsoon is creating quite a splash in the peninsula — but just not enough to cover the crucial July deficit, forcing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to scale down the end-season performance to around 12 per cent below normal.

IMD's long-range forecast had earlier predicted near-normal performance for this year's monsoon. The early onset and initial burst provided just the promising start the IMD was looking for. However, the monsoon failed the acid test in July once again, when it suddenly ran out of steam. The July performance invariably makes or mars the prevailing monsoon.

An early-August flourish saw monsoon back in its elements again, but rainfall largely eluded the strategically important growing areas of the Northwest, including Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. This position has not been reversed even as the system braces to leave the landmass.

It already has withdrawn from the Northwest, and, on Monday, added to the list Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Haryana, remaining parts of Punjab, West Rajasthan, most parts of East Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, North Gujarat and Kutch.

Monsoon ending: Speaking to Business Line, Dr M. Rajeevan, Director, Forecasting, IMD, said the monsoon had now reached the final stages. "We are likely to end up with a 12 per cent deficit — very much below our forecast," he added. A busy typhoon season in the Western Pacific and an evolving but hopefully weak El Nino phenomenon are believed to have worked at cross-purposes with the prevailing monsoon in India.

The hot and dry Northwest is suffering from a severe moisture stress, and is now left scanning the atmosphere for inbound western disturbances for some rain activity. Winter precipitation brought about by the western disturbances is very crucial for Rabi crops over Northwest India, Dr Rajeevan said.

He is heading a research project that attempts to predict the extent of winter precipitation caused by these systems.

"But western disturbances are more difficult to predict than even monsoon. They are not generally known to be as intense as monsoon systems. They can bring about widespread rain but not as forceful as a monsoon does," he added.

Replying to a specific question, he said about two to three western disturbance systems are known to traverse Northwest India during a winter month. But their number varies from year to year.

These systems are also known to modulate winter climate over North India.

"After a system moves eastwards, cold air rushes from the rear and into mainland India. This is what creates cold wave situations in the North."

Rain in South: Meanwhile, in an end-phase flourish in the South, the monsoon dumped rain at many places in Kerala and Lakshadweep. Rain or thundershowers have also been reported from the Konkan region, Goa, Tamil Nadu and Coastal Karnataka.

Forecast valid until the morning of Wednesday spoke about the possibility of more rain at many areas in Kerala and Lakshadweep. The IMD has issued a `heavy rainfall' warning to some of them during the next 48 hours.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Monsoon seen ending 12 pc below normal

BSNL plans big broadband push — Targets 198 cities, 1 million users by 2005

Cancellation of telecast rights — Constitution Bench to hear Zee's plea from today

Buying interest in small-cap shares baffles brokers

Mid-term review of credit policy on Oct 26

Tata Motors lists on NYSE

TVS cos Sundaram Finance, Lakshmi General to merge

8 resolutions put to vote at Federal Bank AGM

Zee, ESPN eye Australian series