The Hindu Business Line : Global wheat production forecast at 615 m tonnes

FOR 2004-05, estimates of global wheat production and consumption both have been revised one million tonnes up from August, while world trade is expected to remain unchanged from the previous year.

As a result, world wheat output forecast for 2004-05 is placed at a record 615 mt, some 11 per cent higher than 554 mt of 2003-04.

Consumption on the other hand is set to rise less dramatically. It is forecast to reach 606 mt in 2004-05 against the previous year's 589 mt.

The rise of 17 mt in world consumption is mostly due to higher feed use, while trade in wheat forecast at 101 mt will be similar to last year, even allowing for China's increased needs, the London-based International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest Grain Market Report.

Larger surpluses of low-grade wheat are expected to find outlets in Asian, European and other markets, but there may be stronger than previously anticipated competition from maize (corn), the report said.

Quality concerns about North American spring crops, especially in Canada, propelled US values higher mid-month but, with the exception of higher protein wheat varieties, prices mostly eased back, while lower grade wheat varieties came under pressure from reduced quotations for Black Sea origin supplies, including Ukraine and prospects for substantial weather-damaged wheat supplies in Canada, IGC commented.

Maize: Global maize prices are under pressure following prospects of record crops, especially in the US.

World supplies are set to get a boost with the largest ever US harvest and a recovery in European Union.

Production is forecast at a record 663 mt, an increase of 41 mt from 2003.

Interestingly, however, global use estimated at 665 mt is expected to more than match the output as a result of anticipated sharply higher feed use in the EU and further rises in the US, China and Brazil.