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Wednesday, Jan 26, 2005

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Bull domination

K. Premkumar

BULLS were in total control of Tuesday's trading activity. The day's market action resulted in triggering the uptrend in many of the tradable counters. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish. Bear domination on Thursday has the potential to change the sentiment reading to bearish. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: The near month January month contract opened with a bear gap of eight points and went further down by another six points. Later on, bulls took charge of the day's proceedings and wiped out their early losses. The January contract moved within a band of 47 points. It closed higher with a gain of 30 points.

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Initial bear move triggered the short entry level in the January contract. However, this was terminated during the later part of the day. The short trade exited with a loss of around 38 points. Fresh entry levels are given for the February contract. Bullish and bearish trigger levels are placed at a far away level.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a total revamp. Reliance, Tata Steel and NTPC were the top three traded counters in this segment.

Bear domination on Thursday could be a threat to the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the downtrend in CNX IT, Infosys and Reliance are likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in ONGC and Ranbaxy. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT, Infosys and Maruti. The best among the above is likely to be the selling in ONGC. This counter is in the uptrend. Bear move on Thursday is likely to initiate the downtrend in ONGC.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list underwent major changes. Tata Steel moved to the top slot followed by Infosys and Reliance. The exit level for the downtrend in Zee Tele continues to remain at 163.70.

Most of the counters in the list are likely to be under threat for Thursday. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in four counters. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in State Bank. The best bet is likely to be the buying in Tata Motors. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its current level. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Motors.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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