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Tuesday, Feb 08, 2005

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GDP growth rate

There are have several predictions on the rates of growth of gross domestic product, inflation, and so on, from official sources. In addition, private research institutions also come out with their own estimates. The Economic Advisory Council is the latest to join the game. It has gone one step further and predicted the exchange rate at the end of the year!

This is not expected of an official agency because of the feedback effect and the self-fulfilling nature of the prediction.

Generally, in India, greater importance is attached to official agencies in such matters than to others due to an assumption of their superior wisdom. It would be helpful if they make public their methodology, assumptions, in a paper that could be put on their Web sites.

A. Seshan

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