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Wednesday, Feb 16, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

BEARS gained control of Tuesday's market activity. The day's market action resulted in terminating most of the uptrend counters in the list. The market sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral. Further bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, it is likely to turn bullish.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hour of the day's trading, the February contract gained seven points. Later, bears took charge of the day's trading and wiped out their early losses. The February contract moved within a band of 19 points. It closed with a marginal loss of two points with respect to the previous close.

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Bears were successful to the extent of terminating the uptrend in the February contract. The long trade exited with a profit of eight points. Bullish and bearish trigger levels for the February contract are equally poised from its current level.

Stock futures recommendation: The top-10 tradable list in this segment underwent a change. Arvind Mills gained entry with the exit of Gujarat Ambuja cement. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes. The exit level for the short position in Gujarat Ambuja Cement is placed at 452.35.

For Wednesday, most of the counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in seven counters.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Selling in Arvind Mills is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading.

Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bear move on Wednesday has the potential to initiate a fresh downtrend in Arvind Mill.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 active counters' list had few changes. ITC and Tata Tele gained entry with the exit of Canara Bank and Tata Motors.

The ranking of the list had a total revamp. Except for the downtrend in Tata Tele, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters.

For Wednesday, the best bet is likely to be the selling in Tata Steel. This counter is in the sideways mode.

Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Tata Steel.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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