The Hindu Business Line : Sugar output poised to recover in Maharashtra

AFTER two consecutive bad years, Maharashtra's sugar industry is poised to stage a turnaround in the ensuing 2005-06 crushing season (October-September).

"Our factories will crush no less than 320 lakh tonnes (lt) of cane during the 2005-06 season, which would translate into a sugar output of about 40 lt," Mr Prakash Naiknavare, Managing Director of the Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation Ltd, told Business Line.

Production of sugar in Maharashtra peaked at 67.05 lt in the 2000-01 season when mills crushed 576.49 lt of cane. In the 2001-02 and 2002-03 season, the quantity of cane crushed fell to 483.87 lt and 534.41 lt, translating to sugar output of 56.13 lt and 62.19 lt, respectively.

But the real decline took place only subsequently. During the 2003-04 season, mills in the State were able to crush only 290.77 lt of cane and produce 31.75 lt of sugar. In the current season, the figures have taken a further hit. "We have so far crushed 186 lt and we will close the season at 192-193 lt. Our sugar production in the 2004-05 season would be 22-23 lt, which includes about one lt processed out of imported raw sugar," Mr Naiknavare said.

During the current season, mills in Maharashtra have imported about 63,000 tonnes of raw sugar and expect to bring in another 40,000 tonnes by the season-end. The importers of raw sugar include the Warana (around 25,000 tonnes), Chhatrapati Shahu (14,000 tonnes) and Pravara (4,000 tonnes) cooperative factories and Natural Sugars in the private sector (15,000 tonnes).

The 2005-06 season, however, promises to be different. Mr Naiknavare said that the good spell of rains from August right till December had led to large-scale planting of the 15-month `pre-seasonal' crop. Maharashtra grows three kinds of sugarcane: an 18-month `adsali' crop planted during May-July, a 15-month `pre-seasonal' crop planted during August-January and a 11-12 month `suru' crop planted after February. In a normal year, the pre-seasonal crop contributes 70 per cent of the State's cane output, with the other two accounting for 15 per cent each.

"This year, there was practically no adsali planting crop, since we had very poor monsoon rains and farmers switched over to soyabean. But because of the good rains since August, the major dams of Koyna and Ujni (which feed the main cane belt of Western Maharashtra), and Jayakwadi (Marathwada region) are full for the first time in three years. As a result, we have had higher planting of the pre-seasonal crop, which will contribute 80 per cent of the cane to be crushed in the coming season," Mr Naiknavare said.

While sugar production will rebound to over 40 lt in 2005-06, the real recovery, however, will happen in the 2006-07 season. That is when the present nationwide shortage of sugar would also be transformed into an all-round surplus, leading to a possible crash in prices as well.

The fall in the country's total sugar production from the record 201.45 lt in 2002-03 to an estimated 120 lt in the ongoing 2004-05 season has been largely due to the dip in Maharashtra's output from 62.19 lt to 22-23 lt. In the process, Uttar Pradesh has become the country's leading sugar producer, with output amounting to 56.51 lt in 2002-03, 45.52 lt in 2003-04 and an estimated 43-45 lt this season.

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