The Hindu Business Line : Less damage likely to Brazilian soyabean: USDA

CONTRARY to expectation of a sharper fall in Brazilian soyabean crop based on reports from the producing country itself, the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has placed the Brazilian crop size only modestly lower at 59 million tonnes against 63 m.t. forecast last month.

Important producing regions in Brazil faced dry conditions in the latter half of last month raising fears of crop loss of 7-8 m.t. The initial forecast was crop size of 65 m.t. for 2004-05. Similarly, the USDA has left untouched the forecast for Argentina soyabean crop at 39 m.t. although some damage was widely expected.

The global output of major oilseeds for 2004-05 is projected at 386.5 m.t. down 3.7 m.t. from last month, but still 50 m.t. above last year's. Of this, soyabean production is forecast at 224 m.t., down 4.5 m.t. from last month, but close to a fifth above last year's 188.8 m.t.

While soyabean in the US, China and India was harvested October last, South American crop harvest is weeks away. Crop decline in South America has already been factored into global oilseeds and vegetable oil prices.

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