The Hindu Business Line : Govt may lower wheat output projections — Above normal temperature in Nov-Dec affects yield

Farm workers threshing wheat at a village on the outskirts of Ludhiana in Punjab. Harvesting of wheat in Punjab and Haryana is almost over. During the current rabi season, the yield has been affected due to higher temperature in the growing areas during November and December. — Kamal Narang

Khanna (Punjab) , April 25

THE Government is likely to lower its current wheat production estimate of 74.05 million tonnes (mt) for 2004-05. Contrary to earlier projections of a bumper crop, the ground situation based on field-level reports and market arrivals indicates that output may be just around, if not marginally lower than, the 72.11-mt levels of 2003-04.

A cross-section of farmers Business Line interacted with here were unanimous about yields being "about two quintals per acre" lower compared to last year.

"I have got only 18 quintals per acre this time, whereas it was almost 20 quintals last year," said Mr Sukhvir Singh Gurm, a six-acre farmer from Madpur, a village about 10 km from here.

"We normally get up to 23 quintals an acre. Last year, yields fell because of the sudden rise in temperatures in March, which caused early maturity. This year we had cool conditions through March, which, we were told, would favour the crop. But having harvested it, we are surprised to find that yields have still fallen," said Mr J.S. Hara, who cultivates 60 acres in Kanganwal village on the outskirts of Ludhiana.

The farmers' views significantly find resonance amongst scientists at the Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), Ludhiana as well.

"We are getting reports from all districts and they all seem to suggest marginally lower yields, particularly for the wheat that was sown somewhat early in October. The general range is from 16-17 quintals to 18-19 quintals," admitted Dr Lal Singh Brar, Head, Department of Agronomy and Agrometeorology, PAU.

According to him, the main reason for low yields this time was that minimum (night) temperatures were 2-5 degrees Celsius above normal from mid-November till the last week of December.

This, in turn, affected tillering, with less number of tillers (stem) being produced per plant. Also, the earheads appeared 10-15 days earlier than the normal end-February time.

Subsequently, though, temperatures fell and an extended winter, unlike last year, resulted in ideal conditions at the grain-filling stage from March onwards. But this would not have fully offset the initial losses from lower tillering.

"Last year, the crop did well right up to early-March, after which the early onset of summer adversely impacted grain-filling. This time, it is quite the reverse. The size and quality of the grain harvested by farmers has been very good, but yields have suffered on account of poor tillering," Dr Brar pointed out.

It is the early sown wheat that has suffered maximum yield loss. The normal date for sowing in Punjab is from early to mid-November. However, this time about 25 per cent of the wheat was sown in October following some good rains in the month.

The early sowing seemed to have also been prompted by last year's abnormally warm March, which had forced the crop to be harvested about 10 days ahead of schedule.

But this time, it is the heat of November-December and not March that has caused the damage.

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