The Hindu Business Line : Global wheat, flour trade to rise 5 mt: IGC

WORLD wheat trade in 2005-06 is forecast to rise to a new high, although both production and consumption are likely to decline from the record levels of the previous year.

The market is expected to be more or less stable with the demand-supply fundamentals helping rein-in price volatility, but the role of funds to impact the market can never be under-estimated.

Interestingly, higher global trade volume can possibly open a small window of opportunity for Indian wheat, notwithstanding the fact that production of this fine cereal in the ongoing harvest season is not much changed from last year's 72 million tonnes (mt).

World wheat and flour trade is forecast to rise by 5 mt in 2005-06 to 108 mt, according to the London-based International Grains Council (IGC).

Larger imports are likely in South America, Near-East Asia and North Africa. China is expected to remain a significant buyer with shipments to the country forecast to total 7 mt, same as in 2004-05.

Within the total wheat trade forecast is a figure of 6.5 mt of durum, some 0.3 mt higher than estimated for 2004-05, but still below the 5-year average, the IGC pointed out in its latest report adding that some countries in North Africa, notably Morocco, are expected to buy more durum next year than in the current year.

World wheat production for 2005-06 is forecast at 602 mt, down from the record 624 mt of previous year, but still above average.

Global consumption is projected to decline from the last year's record by 6 mt to 605 mt due to reduced feed use, especially in the European Union and North America. Food use of wheat is also expected to decline in 2005-06, mainly in China and India, the report said.

On maize (corn), the IGC said the global area devoted to the crop is expected to be slightly smaller with production forecast at 660 mt (612 mt).

Consumption is projected at 665 mt (660 mt). There may be a decline in consumption in the US and the EU, but feed demand will remain strong, with rise in industrial use, especially for ethanol, in the US.

Increased needs in several fast growing feed consumers are expected to boost world maize trade by 2 mt to 79 mt.

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Global wheat, flour trade to rise 5 mt: IGC

Waiting with hope

Extension likely for project to curb white stem borer

Counting the catch

Cong, TDP at loggerheads over Godavari lift irrigation project

Rubber prices unchanged

`Sugar futures aligned to realities of physical trade'

Molasses duty cut to Rs 750/t

Bought leaf units urge Tea Board to defer e-auctions

Gold may come under pressure

Mills furnish Rs 1-cr guarantee for contract cotton farming

Further upside seen in commodity markets

Farmers asked to register

KSCARDB offices, banks to be networked

IEA book on oil saving methods