The Hindu Business Line : Rain belt shifts East as `break monsoon' vigil continues

THE National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) maintained its `monsoon break' watch for a second day, reiterating that favourable conditions are building up for the expected denouement around Sunday.

The rain belt is now seen moving to the eastern parts of the country as dictated by the dominant westerlies, with monsoon having been vigorous over Gangetic West Bengal and active over Jharkhand, Bihar and East Rajasthan on Thursday. Some parts of the peninsula came in for rainfall of low intensity.

East, Northeast soaked: An NCMRWF update said rain/thundershowers occurred at most places over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, west Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep; at many places over Andaman and Nicobar, the Northeastern States, Orissa, East Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Konkan and Goa and Kerala and at a few places over Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, West Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat region, Vidarbha and South Interior Karnataka. It was isolated over rest regions of the country.

Forecast for the next five days said the rainfall activity over Northeastern States, foothills of the Himalayas and parts of southeast peninsular India is likely to increase. Central India, the plains of north India and remaining parts of peninsular India are likely to experience subdued rainfall in the run-up to `break monsoon.'

Circulations persist: On Thursday afternoon, the monsoon system in the form of an upper air cyclonic circulation lay over west Uttar Pradesh and adjoining area and the western disturbance was positioned over northwest Rajasthan as another upper air circulation. Under their influence, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall may continue to occur over many parts of the northwest, viz. Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and East Rajasthan, during the next 24 hours. The rain activity will start tapering off thereafter.

Meanwhile, another cyclonic circulation has formed over Bangladesh and neighbourhood. It is likely to cause fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over parts of West Bengal and the Northeastern States during the next three days. A fresh western disturbance is seen approaching north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir by Sunday.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana during the 2-3 days and reduce thereafter. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is also expected over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rains over West Bengal, Orissa and the Northeastern States during the next four days. Scattered rainfall is expected over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during the next three days. Eastward in peninsula: Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over coastal Karnataka and Kerala, and isolated to scattered over rest of the areas of the region during the next two days. Rainfall activity is likely to enhance over southeast peninsular India, viz. Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next three days.

Fairly widespread rains are expected over Konkan and Goa during the next 2-3 days. Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Gujarat and West Rajasthan may receive isolated to scattered rains during above period. East Rajasthan may receive scattered to fairly wide spread rains during the next 24 hours.

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