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Wednesday, Aug 10, 2005


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Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

BEARS prevailed over Tuesday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to be bearish.

Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. On the other hand, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with additional strength.

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Nifty futures recommendation: In the initial hours of Tuesday's trading activity, the near-month August contract went up by 10 points. However, during the later part of day's trading, bears made a strong comeback and wiped out their early losses. The August month contract witnessed an intra-day movement of around 40 points. It closed with a loss of eight points from Monday's close.

The short position in the August contract remained intact and managed to lock a profit of 10 points. The exit level for the August contract was placed quite near. Bull domination on Tuesday had the potential to terminate the downtrend. However, the bullish trigger level for the August contract is placed quite far away and it is unlikely to be triggered on Wednesday.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition and ranking of the top 10 tradable list remain unchanged. The top three traded counters in the segment were VSNL, Tata Steel and Reliance Industries.

There are no uptrend counters in the list. Except Satyam, all the other downtrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat for Wednesday's trading.

There are three opportunities on either side of Wednesday's trading. The best bet is likely to be buying in ONGC. This counter is in the sideways mode. The bullish trigger level for the counter is placed quite near its last traded price. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh up trend in this counter.

Cash segment The composition of the top 10 tradable counters list remained undisturbed. The ranking of the list had minor changes. VSNL and Reliance Industries interchanged their positions. SBI moved to the sixth position followed by Tata Motors and ONGC.

Most of the downtrend counters in the list are under threat for Wednesday's trading. Infosys, Tata Steel, ONGC and TCS are likely to have an opportunity on the bull side. Three opportunities are likely to exist on the bear side.

The best among the above is likely to be the buying in TCS. This counter is in a downtrend. Bull pressure on Wednesday has the potential to reverse the downtrend in the counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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