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Robust global industrial output spurs metals market

G. Chandrashekhar

Mumbai , Aug 15

RENEWED acceleration in global industrial production growth seems to be pushing base and industrial metals prices higher. This is adding to the positive outlook for metals demand.

Most of the leading indicators have predicted that world industrial production expanded by 3.6 per cent year-on-year in June, the highest growth since January 2005 when growth was 3.9 per cent. In subsequent months, growth dropped to 3-3.4 per cent.

Experts said this was significant given the close linkage between metals and steel demand and industrial production.

"Between the western and the eastern worlds, the acceleration was pretty balanced, with both regional areas showing an increase in industrial production," said Mr Jim Lennon, analyst with Macquarie Research Commodities, adding that except Japan, every major Asian country has made a positive contribution to the area's industrial production.

"We saw the biggest expansion in India where industrial output increased by 11.7 per cent, the highest value since May 1996," Mr Lennon said.

On Friday, base metals saw strong price increase, including for copper and nickel.

Comex spot copper hit a new all-time high earlier in the day following strong US data, while nickel too rose strongly on heavy fund buying.

Last week saw across-the-board rise in oil, gold, and base metals. This has led some analysts to suggest that the buying is driven mainly by index funds pumping money into commodities.

"This may well be the case, but the more positive economic data are leading to a lot of short-covering and consumer buying; many consumers are short copper, having run down stocks hoping for weaker prices."

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