The Hindu Business Line : The peace dilemma in Sri Lanka — Mr Jehan Perera, Media Director, National Peace Council, Colombo

Despite the Kadirgamar assassination, the Sri Lankan government has little option except to keep engaged with the LTTE in the peace process, says Mr Jehan Perera, Media Director of the Colombo-based National Peace Council. In the long run, of course, there seems to be no escape from evolving a kind of joint administrative system where "the LTTE acts as an unofficial federal state and performs development tasks along side with the Sri Lankan government doing so in the rest of the country", he told Business Line in Colombo.

Excerpts from the interview:

Whither the peace process after the assassination of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar?

Till the assassination, the peace process was not even on the minds of the people, as both the people and the politicians were distracted by the impending elections.

But the assassination adds a new dimension in that people now want to see some retaliation and punishment of the LTTE but the problem in retaliating is that the assassination has occurred in the context of a ceasefire agreement and the need to re-engage with the LTTE is still there.

But this will be much harder now and the opposition to it will be much more vigorous.

Of course the LTTE has denied it... .

Oh, they always do that. Two years ago they got the EPRLF leader Robert in Jaffna by a sniper when he was exercising and Kadirgamar too was killed at the end of his swim.

Doesn't all this put in doubt the LTTE's peace intentions? Doesn't it use such ceasefire periods to rearm?

Right from signing the ceasefire agreement the LTTE has been strengthening itself militarily as that is its main strength and gives it bargaining power.

So it will not do anything to weaken its military power. Even in the honeymoon period of the ceasefire with Ranil Wickremesinghe, the LTTE was recruiting children, smuggling arms and killing political opponents and military intelligence personnel.

Three years ago you had told me that all conflicts have their cycles and you saw the Sri Lankan conflict too coming to an end. But that has not happened; are you confident of this conflict ending at all? How do you see the long term or a settlement?

A settlement in which there will be one political system and one army is difficult to foresee at the present time.

The realistic option is one where the ceasefire is strengthened and really implemented in the sense that there are no underground, subterranean killings and intrigues and attempts by both sides to undermine each other.

Second, where some mechanisms are instituted such as the joint tsunami mechanism which enables the LTTE to act as a semi-state or an unofficial federal state and perform development tasks alongside the Sri Lankan government doing so in the rest of the country, and with some formal mechanisms of communication and joint activity between the two authorities.

You think this can be worked out?

Yes, it is feasible but it requires political leadership and a majority in Parliament, which is what the President (Chandrika) did not have. Yes, it can work but the challenge is to formalise that arrangement.

Coming to the elections, when are they expected?

It is very likely that there will be either a Presidential or a general election, or both, this year. This will be known in two weeks.

And because the peace process entails accommodation with the LTTE, it seems that neither of the two main political parties will be willing to take any bold initiatives in this area for fear of losing majority Sinhala support, particularly in the context of the Kadirgamar assassination. On the other hand, both the presidential candidates (UNP's Wickremesinghe and SLFP's Mahindra Rajapakse) will be wooing the minority vote, which is crucial. But certainly there won't be a racist campaign this time.

The perception is that the LTTE would prefer a change in government, and the UNP to the SLFP? So who is the favourite for the presidency?

Yes, the LTTE will prefer the UNP and even though Ranil seems better placed, it is not a certainty because in a straight fight between Ranil and Rajapakse, the Sinhala nationalist vote will have no place to go except to Mr Rajapakse. But the question is will he also get at least a part of the minority vote that he desperately needs.

But he is trying; recently he stepped down as chairman of a parliamentary committee to look into a Bill on unethical conversions that is very unpopular with Christians.

So like India, is conversion an issue here too?

Yes. It's not a major issue but it is an issue, and we have an 8 per cent Christian population.

Similar to the Muslims... which way will the Muslims vote? They've been having huge problems with the LTTE.

Ranil's advantage is his track record of being supportive of minority aspirations vis-à-vis the Tamils. This gives hope to the Muslims that sooner than later he will take up their case too.

And his personal choices have been very liberal; he has married a catholic and is not an aggressive Sinhala Buddhist.

Well, Chandrika Kumaratunga too is very liberal.

Oh yes, and he is not intellectually cosmopolitan as she is.

Now that she can't contest again as President, what next for her?

The abiding suspicion is that she does not wish to go out of politics.

Have you been to Jaffna recently? Are people happy there and have their lives improved?

Yes, I have gone there and people are happy. Things are moving but slowly.

After the ceasefire there was a tremendous improvement, people felt safe, were repairing their houses and we could see improvement everywhere. But now when I go there the changes are not visible anymore; little changes may be happening but they are not visible.

The change of situation from war to peace was immense and visible. In the first 6 to 12months it was a transition from a situation of destruction to construction.

But now I'm disappointed to find things look like they did six months ago.

So there are no great employment opportunities, or great improvements in education or health care?

No, all that has not improved, so naturally there is a lot of frustration on that score. And the Tamils feel that their poverty and suffering are caused by people taking decisions elsewhere; people who are not concerned about their well-being.

This was a problem 25 to 30 years ago, when Sri Lanka liberalised and opened up its economy.

This decision caused havoc to the farmers in the north but the decision-makers in Colombo were not sensitive to give adequate thought to cushion the impact of opening up the economy.

People in the North saw that decision-makers sitting far away were not bothered about them. Today it's the same thing. The perception is that their lives are stuck and the decision-makers in the South don't care.

But a positive new thinking pertains to the UNP; during its last period of governance (2002 to 2004) it established economic regions all over the country.

The main problem in Sri Lanka is that devolution debate or debate on federalism has always been conducted on minority rights; because the minority has no power and feels marginalised, it should be given power.

But this makes the Sinhala majority say: `Why should we share power with them... they will use this power to break away.'

Is there a change in thinking happening on that front?

Yes. Because the discourse on minority rights as the reason for federalism has failed to take hold in the minds of the people, the new thinking is we should say the reason we want to share power is to lessen the inequalities between Colombo and the periphery.

All economic decision-making power now lies in Colombo; we want to decentralise it so that the regions can tax, have the power to raise funds, give incentives, etc. and this can be done by setting up economic regions.

What about the future? What do the Sri Lankans have to look forward to?

If the UNP wins, we can expect quick decisions. But it is possible that quick decisions could lead to widespread agitation and opposition.

So there might be increased conflict and repression; but quick decisions will be taken even though in a more repressive atmosphere.

If Rajapakse wins, we will proceed at a more relaxed and less efficient pace. Less will happen and things won't change much.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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