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G. Chandrashekhar

Mumbai , Sept. 6

ALLx is not well with the kharif 2005 crops. Reports coming from across the country suggest a near-certain negative growth in the output of crucial crops such as paddy, coarse grains, pulses and oilseeds this season.

The Meteorological Department claims that as of August 31, the rainfall deficiency was only six per cent - 677.8 mm actual against 717.9 mm normal. It said as many as 25 meteorological sub-divisions had normal rains and only five deficient.

However, a look at the regional distribution discloses an alarming situation. Large areas are moisture stressed because of erratic rainfall with disastrous effect on crop condition. Rajasthan is the worst hit.

Admittedly, West Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and coastal Andhra Pradesh face deficient rains in varying measure - between 21 and 34 per cent. But what is scary is that several other regions face deficient rains varying from 11 per cent to 19 per cent.

Important among these regions are West Madhya Pradesh (19 per cent); Haryana (18 per cent); East Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh (17 per cent); Punjab (16 per cent); Bihar and Tamil Nadir (11 per cent) where much of the country's kharif crops such as paddy, pulses and oilseeds are cultivated.

Specifically, oilseeds are in distress. Soyabean in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan faces the prospect of a decline in yield. Similarly, pulses (mainly tur or arhar - pigeon pea) as also coarse cereals in the entire northern plains are moisture stressed as a result of which yields have become uncertain.

If rains materialise soon, further losses can be arrested; but indications are that the output of major crops this season in some cases is, at best, likely to be the same or slightly lower than last year's.

Based on inputs from different parts of the country, it is possible to make a tentative or preliminary estimate of the crop. Analysts look at a small decline in rice crop to 70 million tonnes (last year, that is kharif 2004 - 71.7 mt); in coarse grains to 25 mt (26.7 mt); in oilseeds to 12.5 mt (14.9 mt); and pulses to 4.5 mt (5.0 mt).

On cotton, it is estimated that the crop size could either remain unchanged at last year's level of 232 lakh bales (170 kg each) or decline by 10-12 lakh bales because of uncertain yield due to weather aberration. A large opening stock would of course be a saving grace.

The only crop expected to show a production increase is sugarcane, which is estimated at about 270-275 mt versus last year's 230 mt. However, notwithstanding higher sugar production prospect (170-175 lakh tonnes versus 130 lt previous year) a small opening stock of sugar for the new season would result in tight supply-demand fundamentals.

Rice and wheat stocks with Food Corporation of India are running low. How much of rice FCI would be able to procure remains to be seen. In wheat, FCI' s procurement fell short of last year's level by about 2 mt. Foodgrains management over the next several months would become critical.

Considered together with high crude prices, supply shortfall in various crops can lead to inflationary conditions. Assembly elections in Bihar later this year and in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu early 2006 will test the Government's price management capability.

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Negative growth likely in kharif crop
Erratic rainfall leads to moisture stress in large areas

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