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Vipin V. Nair

Kochi , Nov. 2

NATURAL rubber production in the country may fall short of the projected four per cent growth in 2005-06 going by the two per cent increase in the first half of the fiscal, but the Rubber Board is confident that the production will pick up in the coming months.

The rubber industry is sceptical about the four per cent growth that will take the production to 7.80 lakh tonnes, in view of the trends so far. " I don't think it is going to be four per cent," a trader said. "We are already into the peak tapping season, and there is no visible improvement seen in production," he said.

A top official of the Rubber Board, however, said production would pick up from this month, and a four per cent growth was still achievable. He said the production growth was marginal during April-September due to incessant rains in Kerala that affected tapping.

According to figures available from the Rubber Board, production during April-September was 3.40 lakh tonnes, two per cent higher than the production of 3.33 lakh tonnes in the same period during the previous fiscal.

Mr N. Radhakrishnan of the Cochin Rubber Merchants Association expressed doubts about production touching 7.80 lakh tonnes in the current financial year. "Production will be higher than last year's but percentage growth will be lower," he said.

He said consumption could well grow at 5-6 per cent during the year.

In the first half, consumption was up 5.79 per cent at 3.97 lakh tonnes compared with 3.75 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago.

This mismatch between the production and consumption growth is expected to tell on the rubber prices in the coming months. Already, rubber prices are ruling around record levels in the domestic market, influenced by higher international rates.

The ribbed smoked sheet (RSS) - 4 grade on Wednesday closed at Rs 68 a kg.

Surging international prices minimise the possibility of large-scale imports coming in to India to offset the production-consumption gap. Rubber Board statistics show a tapering off of imports from June to September.

In the first half, imports were down 6.35 per cent year-on-year at 36,344 tonnes.

On the other hand, exports surged 59 per cent in the period to 21,058 tonnes from 13,247 tonnes in the first half of 2004-05 as demand for Indian rubber shot up.

In order to achieve the targeted 7.80-lakh tonnes, India needs to produce around 4.40 lakh tonnes during October-March, which is over one lakh tonne more than the production in the first half.

Since the lean tapping season begins by February, not many in the industry are pinning their hopes on such a possible jump in natural rubber production.

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