The Hindu Business Line : Indo-UK climate study says India will get `warmer'

TEMPERATURES in India will increase by 3 to 4 degrees by the end of the century and monsoon rainfall would increase by 30 per cent over the same period, according to Dr Rupa Kumar Kolli, Scientist-F and Head, Climatology and Hydrometeorology Division, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

Speaking at the announcement of the successful completion of the "Indo-UK Programme on Impacts of Climate Change in India," Dr Kolli said various model simulations had been performed during the course of the programme, which indicated these trends.

He said a storm surge reader had been developed for the Bay of Bengal, which indicated possible increase in the intensity of cyclonic storms. With respect to water resources, he said the hydrological cycle - the rate at which the water cycle moves from evaporation to rainfall - would be more intense, and there would be about 20 per cent increase in precipitation over three water basins, that of the Krishna, Ganga and Godavari. This would result in increase of surface water availability.

Prof N.H. Ravindranath, of the Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, said simulation models indicated that 85 per cent of the forest ecosystems in India would undergo changes of the vegetation type, especially on the Savanna biomes, and the Teak and Sal forests of Central and Eastern India, and on the temperate biomes of the Himalayas. During the transient phase, large-scale forest dieback was likely. Adaptation strategies would be necessary to counter this effect, he said.

However, both Dr Kolli and Prof Ravindranath stressed that these were only simulations, and therefore should only be taken as indications.

The three-year programme was funded by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). Mr Mark Runacres, Deputy High Commissioner, British High Commission, New Delhi, said the research programme was set up by DEFRA and the Indian Ministry of Environment and Forests. DEFRA funded it to the tune of £450,000 (Rs 3.55 crore). The programme involved eight Indian institutes that worked with UK research institutes such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter.

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