The Hindu Business Line : Those not sinned will be most sinned against in warming Earth

PLACES around the globe that have contributed the least to warming the Earth are the most vulnerable to the death and disease higher temperatures can bring, says a report authored by scientists at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the US.

The regions at highest risk for enduring the health effects of climate change include coastlines along the Pacific and Indian Oceans and sub-Saharan Africa. Large sprawling cities, with their urban "heat island" effect, are also prone to temperature-related health problems.

Scientists believe that greenhouse gases will increase the global average temperature by approximately six degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. Extreme floods, droughts and heat waves are likely to strike with increasing frequency. Other factors such as irrigation and deforestation can also affect local temperatures and humidity.

The US - the world's top emitter of greenhouse gases - has yet to ratify the Kyoto treaty, which came into effect in February this year. The UW-Madison team says its work demonstrates the moral obligation of countries with high per-capita emissions, such as the US and European nations, to adopt a leadership role in reducing the health threats of global warming.

It also highlights the need for large, fast-growing economies, such as China and India, to develop sustainable energy policies. The political resolve of policymakers will play a big role in harnessing the man-made forces of climate change, says lead author Prof Jonathan Patz of the UW-Madison's Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies.

"Those least able to cope and least responsible for the greenhouse gases that cause global warming are most affected. Herein lies an enormous global ethical challenge."

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