The Hindu Business Line : Coffee Board prunes production estimates

THE Coffee Board has pruned the production figures for the current crop year (November 2005-October 2006) by 12,100 tonnes but the industry feels the output, especially that of arabica, could be even lower.

According to the post-monsoon estimate of the board, coffee production is now expected to be 2.81 lakh tonnes from the post-blossom estimate of 2.94 lakh tonnes. If the production is in tune with the projection, then it would be higher than last season's output of 2.75 lakh tonnes.

"The decrease can be mainly attributed to arabica. A major part of this decrease is in Karnataka, especially in the Kodagu and Chikmagalur zones," a statement from the board said.

"The downward run of the projection was needed. The Coffee Board's figures are more in line with trade estimates," said Mr Ramesh P. Rajah, President, Coffee Exporters Association.

Increased incidence of the white stem borer has affected arabica production in many of the zones coupled with berry dropping due to heavy monsoon, according to the board.

The revised estimates are higher than the growers' expectations of a drop in production due to pest infestation. The United Planters' Association of Southern India and the Karnataka Planters Association had estimated that there would be a 25 per cent decline in arabica crop due to white stem borer infestation.

"Arabica production could be less than what the Coffee Board has projected. The trade is of the view that it could be 10 per cent less than the revised figures put out now," Mr Rajah said.

As per the board's estimates, arabica production is now seen at 98,850 tonnes against the initial estimate of 1.05 lakh tonnes. The output in Karnataka is seen lower at 79,175 tonnes against the earlier projection of 85,800 tonnes. In Tamil Nadu, arabica output is seen down by 350 tonnes at 15,150 from the post-blossom estimates.

Robusta production is expected to decline by a little over 5,000 tonnes with Kerala and Karnataka each recording over 2,000 tonnes loss.

According to the Coffee Board, black rot disease was also reported to be widespread in the plantations and this, too, had affected production.

In Kerala, despite adequate "blossom and backing showers", the crop has been hit by berry drop and black rot.

"Despite the lower projection, coffee availability will be higher than last year, when exports declined," Mr Rajah said. "However, arabica supply could be a bit lower," he said.

Exports during the October-December quarter were expected to be better than the corresponding period last year. "We expect some pick up during January-March quarter," the Coffee Exporters' Association President said.

Till Thursday this year, the Coffee Board had issued permits to export 1.61 lakh tonnes against 2.14 lakh tonnes a year ago. Of this, shipments have been confirmed for 1.51 lakh tonnes against 2.11 lakh tonnes last year.

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