The Hindu Business Line : Cold wave likely in north, northwest

In the south, isolated to scattered rainfall are likely over Andaman and Nicobar, south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next 24 hours and again by the weekend.

Thiruvananthapuram , Jan. 3

THE low-pressure area induced by the western disturbance moved from its overnight perch over northeast Rajasthan and neighbourhood to west Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Uttaranchal on Tuesday.

But the westerly trough is persisting as an upper air system even as its severe-weather creating offshoot moved away, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Though harsh to the hilly regions, the induced low had led night temperatures in the plains to go up appreciably thanks to the warmth generated by associated cloud cover. The shifting away of this wrap is expected to expose the region to cold and sinking air.

Night temperatures may fall: The NCMRWF said in its outlook that night temperatures are expected to fall significantly (by about four to five degree C) over northwest India with the passage of the western disturbance. Fog is expected to envelop parts of Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh right from Wednesday, triggering cold wave conditions.

In its forecast for the next 24 hours, the NCMRWF said the westerly system and the transient low would combine to bring scattered to fairly widespread rain/snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal. There will be isolated rainfall over the plains of Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh.

Heavy snowfall: Isolated heavy to very heavy snowfall is likely over the hilly regions of northwest India during the next 24 hours. The activity is expected to gradually reduce with the systems tracking northeast. In the south, isolated to scattered rainfall are likely over Andaman and Nicobar, south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next 24 hours and again by the weekend.

Three categories:

In a paper authored by him in 1994, Dr Gupta had categorised western disturbances under three broad heads — weak, moderate and active — based on the ascending levels of intensity. `Weak' systems impacted the States of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal.

The more potent `moderate' systems (such as the current one) usually throw up induced lows. The weather created in the wake extends to Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh in addition to the three mentioned above.

`Active' systems are the most intense of all, and induce more than one low to form. They are strong enough to impact the weather prevailing over the entire swathe of the geography extending from Rajasthan into central India and onwards into Uttar Pradesh.

A standout feature associated with the active systems is that they are well predicted at least five to six days in advance. Most of them are able to create what Dr Gupta described as `continuous weather' along an arc extending from Jammu and Kashmir to the northeast.

In a rare instance on January 7, 1997, an active western disturbance belted rain right from Kashmir in the north to Kanya Kumari in the extreme south.

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