The Hindu Business Line : Air traffic to grow 6.5 pc this year: ICAO

GLOBAL and regional scheduled air passenger traffic in terms of passenger-kilometres performed is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent and 6.2 per cent in 2006 and 2007 respectively. In 2005, global and regional scheduled air passenger traffic is estimated to have grown at 7.6 per cent over the previous year, according to statistics published by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO).

In an article published in the ICAO Journal, it has been stated that the air traffic forecasts have been based on projections for global and regional economic growth till 2007. The assessments of global and regional economic outlook that have been taken into account were based on recent forecasts made by the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and other organisations in both the government and private sectors.

The article states that, while growth in air traffic has historically been higher than growth in the economy, there is a strong correlation between the two. As such, the demand for air transport is primarily determined by economic development. However, it merits mention that the demand for air transport is also influenced by safety and security concerns.

According to projections, the world economy is expected to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2006 and 4.2 per cent in 2007. The growth in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to maintain the present momentum during 2005-07. Economic growth in West Asia is expected to be higher than the world average throughout the forecast period. The African economy is expected to grow at 5.4 per cent in 2006 and five per cent in 2007.

The Latin American and Caribbean region is expected to grow at 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent in 2006 and 2007, respectively. The economy in the North American region is estimated to grow at 3.5 per cent and 3.4 per cent in 2006 and 2007. Economic growth in the European region in 2006 and 2007 is expected to be lower than the world average. However, the economic growth there during 2006 and 2007 is likely to be higher than the average recorded during the period 1994-2004.

According to ICAO Journal, air traffic growth will vary in terms of geographies due to the impact of specific local or regional factors. Air traffic growth in West Asia is expected to be highest at 12 per cent in 2006 and 8.8 per cent in 2007. Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region, it has been forecast, will experience fairly strong growth in air traffic.

The market for airlines in North America and Europe is expected to grow at slightly lower than seven per cent in 2006 and 2007. Air traffic of airlines in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa are expected to register growth rates that are expected to be below the world average in 2006 and 2007, it said.