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Tuesday, Feb 07, 2006


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What's ahead for mid-caps now

AS the Sensex hit the 10,000-mark, the CNX Midcap index, too, rallied to close the day at 4,347.85, up 60.40 points or 1.41 per cent. However, the Midcap index clearly seems to have outperformed the Sensex.

Experts give their views on this buzzing space, and a few picks within it. After days of volatility and uncertain moves, the markets finally stood atop the 10,000-mark.

It took the Sensex a total of 22 days to move from the 9,500-level towards the 10,000-level.

The Sensex closed up 237.84 points or 2.44 per cent at 9,980.42. It touched an all-time high of 10,002.83. The Nifty closed up 59.85 points or 2.04 per cent at 3,000.45. The CNX Midcap Index closed up 60.40 points or 1.41 per cent at 4,347.85.

The Midcap index, however, needs special recognition because, since November 28, 2005, the Sensex gave returns of around 11.1 per cent, while the CNX Midcap index gave higher returns of a straight 12 per cent.

Mr Andrew Holland of DSP Merrill Lynch believes that FII interest continues in mid-caps, and as an asset class, mid-caps will outperform the main indices.

Mr Holland says: "We are seeing interest across the board over the past year, as mid-caps have become an asset class now. I expect interest to continue in mid-cap companies and we believe that it will outperform the main indices."

Mr Rajen Shah, Angel Stock Broking, has concerns over frontliners now, and puts his bet on a few mid-caps. He says, "At 10K many of the frontline stocks look overstretched and sooner or later this irrational exuberance shall correct itself. It may take a few more months, but markets will be attracted wherever there's value. We are now into the final stages of that irrational exuberance.

"Essel Packaging, Merck Pharma, Zensar Technologies, Avaya Global Connect, Finolex Industries and Bilt would be the stocks to watch out for. Irrespective of the market performance, I expect these stocks to appreciate by 20-30 per cent."

Mr Dipan Mehta, Member, NSE, believes that the times ahead will really differentiate the boys from the men. While some sectors may languish, some may do very well, he says.

He added, "We are positive on mid-cap technology shares, where valuations are reasonable and many shares are available at 15 times their current year earnings and 14 times FY07 earnings. These companies are likely to grow by 25-30 per cent in their toplines and 30-35 per cent bottomlines coupled with excellent management and very good corporate governance history."

Mr Mehta adds that they are also extremely bullish on hotel shares but would advise investors to buy them on corrections.

"They can wait a while as the year progresses, take the numbers into consideration and then decide on top rung and second rung hotel stocks," he said.

He added that entertainment and media stocks are emerging as winners now and investors can keep a keen watch on them before making investments.

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