The Hindu Business Line : Marine officers shortage to rise

BY 2015, the shortage of marine officers is likely to nearly treble at 27,000 from 10,000 now. On the other hand, the number of ratings (seafarers) will rise to 167,000 in ten years from 135,000 now, according to a global study.

The study by the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) and the International Shipping Federation, which is the world's largest private shipping organisation with over 2,550 members in 123 countries, says that the current moderate officer shortage will become severe unless maritime training is increased and measures are taken to address wastage rates.

Further, the prospects of increasing demand and diminishing supply present an unfavourable situation for the industry, the BIMCO/ISF Manpower 2005 Update says. The Update is one of the most comprehensive assessments of global supply and demand for merchant seafarers, according to an industry source.

The Update presents various global supply-demand balance scenarios. However, the central or benchmark scenario represents the most likely trends based on recent developments and the views of senior shipping executives. This allows for a modest expected increase in the number of ships in the world fleet of around 1 per cent per annum (the growth rate over the past decade).

Supply and demand in 2005

The global supply of seafarers last year was estimated at 466,000 officers and 721,000 ratings. The OECD countries (North America, Western Europe and Japan) remain an important source of officers though Eastern Europe has become increasingly significant with a large increase in officer numbers. The Far East and South-East Asia, and the Indian sub-continent remain the largest sources of supply of ratings and are rapidly becoming a key source of officers too. The current estimate of worldwide demand for seafarers is 476,000 officers.

The study indicates a modest theoretical worldwide shortfall of 10,000 officers or 2 per cent of the total workforce. A significant overall surplus is estimated for ratings, although there are doubts exist on how many are available for international service. The calculated officer shortfall is less severe than in 2000.

However, some of the main supply increases are due to one-off factors, such as better data reporting following the implementation of STCW 95 and the entry of Eastern European although the overall officer shortage is less marked than in 2000, some specialised ships and certain ranks are experiencing severe shortages. Early retirement is a factor in some countries, says the study.

The overall officer shortfall is probably more problematic than an estimated shortfall of 2 per cent suggests, bearing in mind the obstacles preventing surpluses of some nationalities from compensating shortages elsewhere. Barriers include cultural and language differences, lack of international experience and seafarer nationality restrictions imposed by some flags.

Changing nationalities

The centre of gravity of the labour market for seafarers has continued to shift from the traditional maritime countries of Western Europe, Japan and North America to the Far East, the Indian sub-continent and Eastern Europe.

Increased demand: During the past decade, the number of commercial fleet vessels increased at the rate of 1 per cent per annum. Overall demand for both officers and ratings has increased partly due to new larger ships. New buildings have increased in number and scrapping has dropped. In general, there is little scope for further manning reductions, since international requirements, such as work hour regulations and the ISPS Code, together with commercial demands, have increased the workload on board. Even a modest future increase in ship numbers will result in additional demand for seafarers, which can only be met by increased recruitment and training. Severe shortages in some ranks and for certain specialist ships must be addressed in training plans.

Dependence on ageing OECD officers: The world fleet continues to rely heavily on officers from Europe, North America and Japan. Most are in senior positions such as Masters or Chief Engineers. The impact of their retirement, without adequate numbers of well-trained and experienced replacements, could be severe.

Need to progress Asian seafarers to senior positions: The study suggests that unlike OECD countries, relatively few officers from the Far East or the Indian sub-continent choose to remain at sea over age 50. It is possible that this trend might be expected in newer labour supply countries and that age profiles will mirror the OECD pattern over time but age profiles established over the last 10 years suggest this pattern has remained consistent. If substantial numbers continue to retire by the age of 50, this may challenge the assumption that Asian officers will replace retiring OECD senior officers. The retirement patterns of East European officers are not yet clear but the next five years may reveal a trend.

The need to increase recruitment and reduce wastage shows that recruitment levels have to go up to meet anticipated demand. At the same time, it is imperative to reduce the numbers leaving the industry. This is particularly relevant for training (although figures are much lower for the Indian sub-continent and Africa/Latin America).

Need for improved data

Clear improvements in basic source data were apparent from implementation of STCW 95. However, there is still a serious need for improved national data, and this update highlights data weaknesses in many countries. This survey primarily aims to present a global manpower situation overview rather than a country-by-country analysis. Nevertheless, the data provide pointers for action on a national basis to deal with the manpower situation, and any measures taken must be supported by good data provision.

The study suggests a modest shortage of officers worldwide and a continuing surplus of ratings. While the shortfall of officers is smaller than estimated in 2000, certain sectors of the industry have experienced very severe shortages, and the continuing growth of the world fleet, combined with work pressures on crews, indicate that demand for qualified seafarers will continue to increase over the next decade.

Key supply sources

THERE is some evidence of improved supply, which in the Indian sub-continent and the Far East reflects increased levels of maritime training. India and China will play important roles in the supply of seafarers, according to an industry source.

Other than the four Indian Institutes of Maritime Studies, there are over 100 maritime institutes approved by the DG, Shipping.The source said that some 200 ship-management firms of different sizes could be operating out of India. The majority of these are of foreign origin large ship management companies, including Univan, Wallem, Barbers, V Ships and Fleet Ship Management, have been in the country for long, and have been recruiting seafarers.

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