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Saturday, Feb 25, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

Bear dominated over Friday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened with additional counters.

Nifty futures: The March contract opened with a bear gap of around two points. It moved within a range of around 24 points making an intra-day high of 3057.70. It closed with a loss of around 8 points from its previous close.

The March contract entered a fresh long position in the morning session. The exit and sell levels are placed quite far away from its last traded price. In the normal course of trading, these levels are unlikely to be triggered during Monday's trading.

Stock futures: The composition and ranking of the top-10 tradable list had minor changes. Ranbaxy went out of the list and gave way to Bajaj Auto. Satyam and Tata Steel interchanged their positions.

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Hind Lever and Reliance moved up to third and sixth positions respectively. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were State Bank, Reliance Capital and Tata Steel.

All the counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Monday's trading. There are ample opportunities on the buy side and three opportunities on the sell side.

The best for Monday is likely to be selling in Hind Lever. This counter is in uptrend. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition and ranking of the top-10 tradable list had minor changes. Satyam moved out of the list and gave way to Reliance Capital. Hind Lever and Tata Motors interchanged their positions. Infosys moved down to tenth position from ninth position.

All the uptrend and downtrend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be terminated during Monday's trading.

There are four opportunities on the buy side and five opportunities on the sell side. The best is likely to be buying in VSNL. This counter is in downtrend. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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