The Hindu Business Line : Wet weather forecast for whole country

Northwest India is gearing up to receive the first `active' western disturbance of the 2005-06 winter whose large amplitude will cause entire stretches of the country to be brought under widespread rainfall from the middle of the next week.

The massive westerly is delayed by at least two months, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). Active, weather-creating western disturbances are normally identified with the month of January.

Regions from right up north in Jammu and Kashmir down to Karnataka in the south will be affected as the system forays into the east of the country. The westerly system is timed to interact with the pre-monsoon thunderstorms over central and north peninsular India to bring copious showers.

Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and the Northeast will be brought under the ensuing wet cover. Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where easterly waves are already in play, will likely prove beyond the reach of this system.

HAILSTORMS LIKELY

The forward section of the westerly trough will extend to cover the central and the north peninsular India where convective activity is peaking. The resulting interaction is likely to cause hailstorms in these areas. Standing wheat and other crops in western Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are likely to be affected, Dr Gupta said.

Explaining the evolving weather, he said the westerly system would start affecting Jammu and Kashmir on Tuesday, triggering rain and snow. It will spread to the plains of the northwest the next day and head further east, setting off the real interaction with the pre-monsoon system. The intensity of rainfall could at times reach extreme levels as to resemble real monsoon weather.

forecast

An NCMRWF forecast said Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal are likely to receive isolated to scattered rain/snowfall during next two days.

In the east, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar may receive scattered to fairly widespread rains on Thursday and Friday.

Isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers are likely over East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Isolated hailstorms are likely in West Madhya Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday.

Scattered thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka during the next three days. In the west, thunderstorms and isolated hailstorms have been indicated for Maharashtra over the next four days.