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Wednesday, Mar 08, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

Tuesday's trading activity witnessed volatile movement. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures: The March month contract opened with a bear gap of around five points. The March month contract moved with in a range of around 23 points making an intra-day low of 3157.25. It closed with a loss of around 19 points from its previous close.

The long position in the March month contract remains undisturbed. The long exit and short entry levels are placed quite far away from its last traded price. In the normal course of trading, these levels are unlikely to be triggered during Wednesday's trading.

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Stock futures: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had minor changes. ONGC went out of the list and gave way to Hindalco. REL moved up to seventh position and Bajaj Auto moved down to eighth position. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were State Bank, Reliance and Tata Steel. All the positions in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat during Wednesday's trading. There are four opportunities on the buy side and five opportunities on the sell side. The best is likely to be selling in Bajaj Auto. This counter is in uptrend. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking had minor changes. Tata Steel and Satyam interchanged their positions. The long exit level for ONGC is placed at 1150.25.

All the counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Wednesday's trading. There are three opportunities on the buy side and two opportunities on the sell side. The best is likely to be buying in VSNL. This counter is in downtrend. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in VSNL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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