The Hindu Business Line : Rubber production to exceed targets

Contributing factors
Growers adopt better farm practices
High prices induced them to continue tapping even in February
Conducive weather conditions

Kochi , March 9

India's natural rubber production in the current fiscal is set to exceed Rubber Board's expectations as rising prices and conducive weather conditions induced more tapping and yield.

According to official sources at the Board, rubber production in 2005-06 would touch 7.86 lakh tonnes, recording a growth of 4.9 per cent over the previous year.

The Board had earlier forecast that rubber production would grow by four per cent in the fiscal to 7.80 lakh tonnes. "Now we would end the year with a production of 4.9 per cent," the sources said.

During April-February 2006, rubber production stood at 7.44 lakh tonnes, clocking a growth of 5.1 per cent over the same period a year ago. Rubber stocks are estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonnes.

Even if one goes by the conservative forecast of 42,000 to 44,000 tonnes production for March, that would take the total to over 7.86 lakh tonnes.

The first six months of the fiscal year had given rise to scepticism that the country's rubber production might not reach the targeted levels for the full year.

Production grew by a meagre two per cent during April-September 2005.

No let up in tapping

However, rising price to record levels induced growers to adopt better farm practices and continue tapping. Conducive weather conditions also helped.

According to Prof K.K. Abraham of Pala Marketing Society, a leading cooperative engaged in rubber trading, even during February, when normally tapping is stopped, growers kept tapping this year because of the high prices.

"Normally people stop tapping in the beginning of February till end of March. But this year some didn't stop tapping at all," Prof Abraham said.

Unexpected rains during last week and this week in rubber growing areas in Kerala also helped. Tapping is now on in full swing and yield too has improved, he said.

PRICES MAY STAY HIGH

The increase in production is unlikely to ease rubber prices, Prof Abraham said. "The domestic market is driven more by trends in international markets rather than local conditions."

Although prices dropped in the past few days, Prof Abraham said rubber would stay high in the coming months. "I don't expect a crash. The possibility of prices rising is still there and we will see much higher prices during June and July," he said.

The demand for Indian rubber in international markets is still on. During April-February, exports stood at 61,493 tonnes over 43,172 tonnes in the same period a year ago.