The Hindu Business Line : Farmers urged to resume sowing

With monsoon reviving over the peninsular region and predicted to progress into central region and the Gangetic plains, farmers have been advised to be ready to resume kharif sowing.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) suggested that farmers in Central India, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand raise medium and short duration paddy varieties.

Rain progress

Strong cross equatorial flows will continue to feed Arabian Sea with ample moisture to sustain rainfall over the mainland during the week ahead. A cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over west central Bay of Bengal, which could intensify into a `low' to bring good rainfall over the eastern parts of the country.

Both the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the US-based private forecaster AccuWeather are "bullish" on the prospects of the brewing monsoon "low". According to Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather, the low could even achieve cyclone strength before swirling inland.

`Low' for cyclone

Mr J.V. Singh of NCMRWF said it was unusual at this stage for the Bay to host a cyclone. Ideally, a monsoon "low" could concentrate into a depression at the best and move inland to the accompaniment of copious rainfall. Mr Andrews said the monsoon was "bracing for a strong showing", promising to reach virtually every spot in the subcontinent by mid-July.

Favourable forecast

Meanwhile, in another good augury for monsoon, a tropical depression over the South China Sea has now reached tropical storm strength and is moving further northwest. South China Sea systems have been known to send in migrant systems east into the Bay of Bengal where they intensify to become more severe systems. This could have a bonus multiplier effect on the monsoon system.

According to Mr Andrews, the western North Pacific Basin (covering South China Sea) is looking favourable to host more tropical storms/typhoons by June-end and through the first two weeks of July.

Other models

In the meantime, two other weather models have indicated the possibility of northwesterlies invading the Indian monsoon region from July 2. Mr Singh said it is hoped that the Bay `low' will have matured by then, whose strong flows would prevail over the impeding winds. But, a lot will depend on the levels to which the `low' can grow.

The heavy pre-monsoon showers in Delhi on Tuesday were a purely localised with monsoon-bearing easterlies being conspicuous by their absence, Mr Singh said.

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