The Hindu Business Line : Bay system blows in as cyclone

Analysis of satellite products indicate that the deep depression in the Bay of Bengal might well have spun to cyclonic strength at least for a brief time prior to crossing land on Sunday night.

The outlook for good rainfall prompted the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) to recommend transplantation of paddy under irrigated condition in Northwest India. Sowing of maize, millet and soybean may also be completed by this weekend.

RARITY FOR BAY

The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) endorsed the presence of a `numbered tropical cyclone' in the Bay on Sunday, a rarity at this stage of the monsoon. Business Line managed to garner opinions of two international experts, who more or less corroborated the passing of the cyclone.

Dr Roger Edson, a leading tropical meteorologist, said one normally does not expect a monsoon depression to have a wound up, fairly symmetric low level cloud field (and associated surface circulation) similar to what the Bay system displayed on Sunday.

Dr Edson even detected howling winds that clocked up to even 60 knots to the southeast of the system - when 34 knots and above is what is needed for a system to be classified as a cyclone. Dr Paul Roundy of Colorado University also aired similar views, although not in as many words.

MOVING VERY FAST

According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology, monsoon systems do not cause storm surges since associated winds blow largely offshore. The deep depression had gone through rapid intensification before crossing land; although weakened, it still keeps moving inland at a very fast pace.

Rainfall will continue to be exceptionally heavy to very heavy along the track, Dr Gupta told Business Line. This is only to be expected, since the system is set to merge with the circulation already existing over Gujarat.

MUMBAI WARNED

The northern part of the west coast, including Konkan and Mumbai, would be better warned of `a very wet session' over the next two to three days. For Mumbai, which has already witnessed some heavy showers over the past two days, the peak would be July 5 (Wednesday) with several models predicting rainfall in excess of 30 cm during a 24-hour period.

The rains are seen battering the region north of Konkan right from the evening of July 4 (Tuesday) until July 6 (Thursday). Entire Maharashtra looks set to be covered under this spell. There will then be some respite, with the rain belt moving north to Gujarat to hold sway over the State for the next two days. There are now indications that another low-pressure area could develop over the Bay around July 9.

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