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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Aug. 21

The weakening trend of monsoon will become more pronounced after August 26, ending a period of almost two months when an active monsoon chose to bear it down heavily on Central and Peninsular India in total disregard to spatial and temporal distribution norms.

The result is that the entire North-East States and some others in the East, the Northwest and Tamil Nadu in the South find themselves in the deficient/scanty category, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

ESSENTIAL PHASES

He attributed the crisis mainly to the fact that the monsoon failed to go into a classical `break phase' (logical conclusion to a `weak' monsoon) any time after it engaged in top gear from June 20. `Active' and `break' phases are two essential features of the monsoon that go to ensure the even rainfall spread across the country.

The North-East, parts of east India and Tamil Nadu get their due during `break phase' only. A long active phase of the monsoon is as good or bad as a long break phase. The concurrently weather-affected regions bears ample testimony to this time-tested monsoon logic.

CONTRASTING PICTURE

Although it is being claimed that the rain deficit up till August 16 is only 2 per cent as per area-weighted rainfall figures, a district-wise analysis of rainfall distribution gives a totally different picture. Out of the total 602 districts, as many as 222 (almost 37 per cent) are under the deficient/scanty category.

The break-up for major States (as on August 16) are: Uttar Pradesh - 34 deficient/scanty districts out of a total 64; Bihar - 17 out of 32; Uttaranchal - 7 out of 12; Haryana - 15 out of 19; and Punjab - 12 out of 16. In the south, Tamil Nadu stood out with 27 deficient/scanty districts out of a total 30.

SURPLUS VS DEFICIT

It's instructive to compare the surplus rain figures (in percentage figures) for met sub-divisions in the West and Central India with the deficits in the North-East and South.

The surplus figures are plus 83 each in Gujarat and Madhya Maharashtra; plus 63 in Saurashtra and Kutch. The deficit figures are minus 43 per cent each in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya; 44 per cent in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.

GETTING SUBDUED

As for the weakening trend in the monsoon, Dr Gupta said there was clear evidence of the rainfall getting subdued in the Central and Peninsular India after August 26. The copybook weakening trend had not set in; a definite picture would emerge later since forecasts were available up till Sunday only.

In any case, the country is now at the fag end of the season with the monsoon normally scheduled to withdraw from the western-most parts of Rajasthan. This will also prepare the ground for the seasonal anti-cyclone (heralding dry weather) to slowly slip into place over the region.

This will ensure that prevailing rains will be driven more and more into the eastern flanks of the country.

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Monsoon to weaken after Aug 26

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