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Vinson Kurian

Will have forced the eastern end of the trough to shift southwards

Thiruvananthapuram , Aug. 24

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has maintained the forecast for the next `low' expected to develop around August 28 (Monday next) in the Bay of Bengal.

Coming as it does towards the fag end of August, the `low' could possibly interfere with the normal schedule of monsoon withdrawal. This process is expected to begin from extreme West Rajasthan from September 1 but could now get slightly delayed, according to Mr J.V. Singh of the NCMRWF.

Untimely rains

This is so because the system is seen moving west-northwest, leading to some untimely rainfall in Central or North Peninsular India. Its overall circulation features are such that the maximum impact would be felt in the East and Northeastern parts of the country.

In tandem with the weakening trend in monsoon, the larger western segment of the east-west trough is likely to keep shifting further to the north to drive up rainfall activity along the foothills of Himalayas and the Northeastern states during the next two to three days.

In the meantime, the `low' will have forced the eastern end of the trough to shift briefly southwards along its normal alignment, the NCMRWF said.

Low weakens

Wednesday's well marked `low' over Jharkhand and neighbourhood has weakened into a `low' on Thursday. Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over interior Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh during the next 48 hours. There is also possibility of increase in rainfall activity over Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh during the next two days.

The other `low' over Southeast Pakistan and adjoining Southwest Rajasthan has also become less marked.

Model prediction suggests that the ongoing rainfall activity over South Rajasthan and adjoining area is likely to reduce significantly in the next 24 hours.

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