The Hindu Business Line : `Drastic fall unlikely in natural rubber prices'

Presenting the "trend and outlook" for natural rubber (NR) on the eve of the 113th UPASI Annual Conference, he said the farmers in the producing countries would be enthused to bring in more area because of the prevailing remunerative price levels, but the additional planting would start to yield only after 2012.

Supply situation

"Notwithstanding the investment taking place in various countries for increasing the production of NR, the supply situation is expected to be tight at least up to 2020," he said, quoting the International Rubber Study Group forecast.

However, to a query, he said the Board was not in favour of increasing new planting, although farmers were doing it as the prices were good.

Replanting subsidy

He said the Board has asked for enhancement of the replanting subsidy in the XI Plan period. (It was fixed at Rs 20,000 per hectare in the Tenth Plan).

Short-term measures

Short-term measures for increasing production, unscientific excessive harvesting practised by a section of the small growers, the age-structure of the existing trees and the anticipated decline in tappable area during 2006-2012, he said were the factors that could put a downward pressure on production potential in the medium term.

Price fall

On price, he said, since July, the NR prices had started to fall. The international price of RSS 3 at Bangkok had fallen from Rs 128/kg in mid-June to Rs 82 last week. In the domestic market, the price of the RSS 4 slipped from Rs 115/kg in May to Rs 82/kg last week.

He attributes the falling prices to the persistent talk of improving supplies in the three major producing countries, drop in crude oil prices (from $71 to $67), market undergoing a correction after the boom and the start of peak rubber production season in India.

Stating that the age of the rubber tree was identified as the most important factor for determining its yield (for a given clone), he said the proportion of `tapping age of 4 to 13 years' in the total tappable area in India was estimated to fall from 65 per cent in the last 90s to 34 per cent in 2012.

Age factor

The proportion of `14 to 22 years tapping age' on the other hand could increase from 20 per cent to 55 per cent over this period. "The age factor, therefore, is likely to put a downward pressure on growth of production of NR in the country during 2006-2012. The tappable area has also been estimated to decline marginally," he said.

On intercropping with tea, he said it was started on an experimental basis in 2000-01, with alternate buds of tea and rubber. "Going by the bark, it looks as if the productivity would be comfortable, but this can happen at certain altitudes only."

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